Posse Incitatus

Another China retreat?

Over the weekend, Communist China announced that it was lifting tariffs against soy and pork products from the US.

If this is the case (note that the ChiComs lie early and often), it would be a significant win for Trump's trade policies.

As we've pointed out several times, the US holds the upper hand in this dispute.  The US is almost entirely self-sufficient, and only allowed itself to become dependent on Chinese manufactured goods through a combination of laziness and corporate greed.

China, on the other hand, cannot even feed itself.  This dependency goes behind basic nutrition to prestige items like pork, which is highly-valued in China.

The Communist regime's legitimacy rests in large part on increasing prosperity.  Forcing people to cut back on favorite foods while factories close undermines that legitimacy and strikes at the heart of the regime's power. 

There is also the problem that the rest of the world doesn't have enough soy or pork to feed China.  America remains the garden of the world, and without our foodstuffs, global famine is a certainty.

Trump's economic team has always known this, and it's worth noting that while the national security and political appointees seem to have regular turnover, the economic side of the administration remains stable and successful.  This is perhaps because Trump understands that without a firm economic footing, all else is weakened.  China's leaders are now learning the same lesson.

9/11 Comes of Age

The artificial outrage over the Trump Administration seeking a negotiated settlement to the Afghan War tells us all we need to know about the Bipartisan Establishment and the Democrat-funded "peace movement."

They are both incompetent and fake.

War is not a condition to be managed, it is an existential struggle for those involved.  It is true that a coldly rational policy might require sacrifice for a greater strategic aim, but no such vision is now being articulated regarding Afghanistan.  It's a quagmire so we must stay because that's what we have to do.

It's significant that our current Ruling Class is entirely insulated from the war's costs but richly rewarded by its benefits.

This is why Trump's effort to wind down the now-aimless struggle are being attacked from the left of all places.  So much for Cindy Sheehan.  The widows and orphans of the current war are drawn from the Deplorable class, so no attention need be paid them.

The desire to smear Trump as anti-military or defeatist will fail, just as all the other smears have failed because the truth is unmistakable.  Actual combatants and their families are tired of a war without end.  The ardent volunteers of 18 years ago are now watching their children come of military age to take up the torch from failing hands, but to what end? 

A punitive expedition to Afghanistan was always a good idea, and the installation of a friendly client government was a not unreasonable solution.  But one cannot "reconstruct" a society that never was.  George W. Bush ran for president in part by ridiculing "nation-building," and yet he was the worst nation-builder of them all.

Just as the attacks 18 years ago this morning tore away the illusions that our Ruling Class knew what it was doing, so the bumbling effort since has further destroyed their credibility.  In a sense, this is the 9/11 about 9/11.

China Blinks

It appears the Hong Kong protestors have won.

The extradition bill, which would effectively negate the "two systems, one country" policy by making Hong Kong residents subject to Chi-Com laws, has been formally withdrawn.

This is a great victory for the protestors, but it is worth noting that it has not taken place in a vacuum.

Donald Trump's administration has consistently been applying multi-faceted strategies to undermine the ChiComs' economic, military and political positions.

The tariffs get a lot of ink, but just as significant was the decision last month to sell some of the most advanced fighter aircraft in the world to Taiwan, which still styles itself the lawful government of China.

The F-16V is the latest variant of a proven weapons platform, and something the ChiComs deeply fear.   Taiwan’s air force was in dire need of upgrades to keep pace with its mainland rival and this has the potential to significantly shift the strategic balance.

Here again we see how Trump doesn’t just offer diplomatic carrots – he’s also got a handy supply of sticks as well.

Back to the trade front, Japan has agreed to buy up a considerable quantity of US corn, welcome news for farmers struggling to move their crops.  This also demonstrates to the ChiComs that the US is not alone in this contest.

Given the damage done by all these policies, the Chinese had little choice regarding Hong King.

The fact is tanks do very poorly in cities.  One need only look back at the Russian debacle in Grozny during the 1990s to see why trying to use armored might to bring a hostile city to heel is a bad idea.

The Russians later retook the city, but only by using World War II-style massed artillery bombardments, moving street by street.  Something like that would be out of the question in Hong Kong since it would demonstrate to the world that the Peoples’ Liberation Army can’t even control its home turf.

Thus a Tiananmen-style crackdown was simply impossible in the urban jungle of Hong Kong.

The question now is: what comes next?  Will the protestors go home, or will the movement spread to the mainland?  Beijing has lost face, and still refuses to come to terms on a trade deal with the US.  That means more factories closing, more unemployment and more discontent.

The great danger is that the Chinese Ruling Class will lose control and bring on general chaos.  Such is usually the fate of China's ruling dynasties.  None of them tend to end well.

Molotov-Ribbentrop at 80: The concentrated essence of unprincipled leftism

Today marks the 80^th anniversary of the infamous Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact, which sealed the fate of Poland and set the stage for World War II.

The alliance was purely tactical for both parties.  Joseph Stalin wanted to push his frontier further west and gain hegemony over western Poland, parts of Finland and the Baltic States.  Adolf Hitler wanted to avoid a second front during his ongoing showdown with the western Allies.

After years of heated vitriol, both totalitarian states turned on a dime, going from hating one another to proclaiming the wisdom of rapprochement so they could fight the true common enemy, western liberal democracy and capitalism.

The alliance was the basis for George Orwell’s famous formulation that “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia,” reflecting the ease with which the propagandists did a complete reversal on the Nazi-Soviet relationship and then reversed themselves again when Germany invaded the Soviet Union in June of 1941.

The crucial lesson of this anniversary is that the left is utterly without principle.  It has but one goal: total, unbridled power.

This is how people who claim to worry about carbon emissions fly around on private jets and live lavish lifestyles while hectoring poor people to give up hamburgers.

It is how we must “believe all women” - unless they are accusing Bill Clinton.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder are free to call for more gun control even though it was their policy not to prosecute gun law violations.

The means are irrelevant to these people and even their goals are negotiable because all that matters is power for its own sake.  Arguably, they don’t have a clear vision of what they will do with it, other than enjoy its free and easy exercise.

Oh, and crush their enemies utterly.  That part at least is known.

This is why the best analogy to the contemporary US is not its previous civil war, but rather then one in Spain from 1936 to 1939.  Then as now, a major part of the divide was between the right – who respected institutions and culture – and the left, which respecting nothing but its quest for power.

The Spanish “Republic” was nothing of the sort, and it leaders were quite willing to rule by decree and use political assassinations and militias to achieve their goals.

Far from being a true Popular Front, the government was bitterly divided between Socialists, Communists and Anarchists, with only the common enemy of traditional Spanish culture and the Catholic Church holding them together.

What made the war inevitable, with the Popular Front’s abuse of power and its seeming pleasure in flaunting it.  Here we see a clear parallel with the left’s treatment of Antifa.  Just as in Spain, law enforcement has zero interest in breaking up the terrorist organization and instead blames their atrocities on their victims.

All of this has the effect of radicalizing the middle class, which is the crucial precondition for civil war.

The left seems convinced that this won’t happen, or that if it does, they will win easily.  The Popular Front felt the same way and it didn’t work out well for them.

Spain was the first time fascists and communists clashed militarily, with the Soviet Union backing the Republic while Germany and Italy sided with the insurgent Nationalists.

It was billed by both sides as an existential struggle and yet no sooner had the Spanish war drawn to a close than Hitler and Stalin were able to forge their infamous pact.

Because the pursuit of power demanded it and both Stalin and Hitler were leftists in every sense.

Today should be a reminder that the left is implacable, knowing no decent limits and eager to make a deal with anyone and everything to achieve power.

Meanwhile, in China...

It may seem strange for me of all people to say this, but I find the current iteration of the gun control debate painfully boring.

Given that the Dems want the southern border erased, its hard to take their claims of wanting to eliminate guns seriously. 

I think the president knows this and is using the opportunity to bait them into demanding the arrest and imprisonment of everyone with a gun, because that’s how the Dems roll now.

Of far more significance is the growing and seemingly implacable unrest in Hong Kong.

What started as street demonstrations against an extradition law, have continued to grow in both size and scope, with movement leaders demanding the removal of Beijing’s governor and – potentially – the overthrow of the Communist system.

This may seem like hyperbole, but a general strike yesterday brought the former British colony to a virtual standstill.  The local police are overwhelmed and demoralized while the protestors continue to evolve new approaches and methods to resistance.

So far the mainland has be quiet, but the Chinese economy is shuddering to an uneasy halt in response to the Trump administration’s escalating trade war.

Across China, factories are being idled as the Great On-Shoring continues. 

China’s latest gambit is to devalue their currency, which is clearly intended to undercut the tariffs as well as act as a tariff against American imports, which will become more expensive.

Currency manipulation is a dangerous game, however, especially for a country with such a lop-sided and poorly documented economic sector.  China relies heavily on US food imports, the devaluation and their attempted retaliatory tariffs could create a perfect storm of falling employment and rising food prices.

I’ve mentioned this before, but throughout recorded history China’s leaders have grossly misjudged the motives and capabilities of foreign opponents.  This is why China is frequently conquered by foreign powers yet consistently struggles to retain control over non-core areas. 

No doubt a number of American politicians (especially Sen. Diane Feinstein) are telling the ChiComs that once Trump is defeated in 2020, everything will go back to normal.

But such a defeat is hardly a foregone conclusion and even if a Democrat somehow gains the White house, It’s not clear they will be able to revert to policies that close the newly-reopened factories. 

The Chinese are always given credit for playing a "long game," but Trump is doing likewise.  Like the Chinese, he is also bringing the full spectrum of American power to bear on his objective.

How the Chinese respond will determine whether the ChiComs are able to overcome, or merely become the most recent failed dynasty.

Ban all the things

Once again, I see the usual suspects are demanding gun control measures that would have had zero impact on the latest criminal act.

The advocates bolster their arguments with outright lies about current laws, the mechanics of firearms and the experiences of other countries.

If gun control worked as advertised, the United Kingdom would be a place of total peace and serenity.

Predictably, the locals moved on to acid and knifes for casual violence, though they can still get mass shootings when they want them.

Magical thinking seems to be the rule these days.  That and enacting laws specifically to punish political enemies.

I don't think things will work out the way the elites anticipate.

Trump ratchets up the trade war with China

This week President Trump announced yet more tariffs in his ongoing trade dispute with China.

The result will be further economic difficulty for the ChiComs and greater prosperity in the United States.

We've written about this many times, but one of the interesting aspects in Trump's approach is how he's created the mirror image of the "free trade ratchet" that seemed to only go one way.

Once NAFTA was passed and then when China became a member of the World Trade Organization, the decline of American manufacturing was taken as a given.  Powerful market forces, we were told, were the culprit, not government policies.  One may as well rage against the tide.

Ironically, many of the same people who insisted globalism was like a force of nature also claim that massive state control can change the global climate, but I digress.

Donald Trump has proven all of that false, and the stunning rebound of manufacturing jobs and the resulting prosperity are going to make it very hard for his successors to reverse his policies. 

This is clearly what the ChiComs hope for, and why the media howls incessantly about RUSSIA while ignoring massive Chinese political influence.  RUSSIA is economically weak, militarily overstretched and remains a world power solely on the basis of its nuclear weapons. 

Ask yourself a simple question: If RUSSIA is such a serious threat, why can't it fix it's only aircraft carrier?

China, on the other hand, continues to expand its blue-water fleet.  In terms of force projection, there is no comparison.

I suspect Trump knows this, which is why he's pushed harder on the economy than anything else.  The media refuses to give him much credit for the booming economy, but its effects are undeniable.  Like Ronald Reagan, he is rightfully asking the key question:  Are you better off now than four years ago?

Unless you're a fake journalist, the answer is unquestionably "yes."

Meanwhile, Blighty gets a new P.M.

It's wall-to-wall Mueller at the moment, so I'd like to take a moment to focus on events elsewhere.

Today Brits got a new prime minster, Boris Johnson.  Johnson is both like and unlike Donald Trump.  They're both popular with the ladies, have crazy hair and a reputation for cutting remarks and blunt truths.

However, BoJo is definitely not an outsider like Trump, nor was he chosen by popular acclaim.  In fact, the Conservative Party remains a minority government sustained by a coalition agreement with Ulster Unionists.  Johnson has stated that he plans to lead his party for the next election and presumably that will be after he has handled Brexit and had a chance to prove his ministry to voters.

In fact, the person most like Trump is Nigel Farage, founder of first the UK Independence Party and now the Brexit Party, which he currently leads.

The Brexit Party has made deep inroads into both Labour and Conservative and should BoJo's hard-core Remain colleagues try to bring down the government, there is a real possibility that Farage might win enough seats to hold the balance of power.

All of which is to say that the UK is at a crossroads, with its ancestral freedoms under attack and crime soaring out of control.  Johnson has his work cut out for him, but if he succeeds, he will deserve comparison with Margaret Thatcher.

The warrior caste

For most of the 20^th Century, military service was seen as a collective duty.  Especially in Europe, conscription was the rule. 

The “peace dividend” at the conclusion of the Cold War caused most nations to abandon (or at least greatly reduce) the practice, with the result being a return to the pre-industrial practice of staffing their military establishment with professional long-service volunteers.

The practical effect is a return to the ‘warrior caste’ in many societies.  The United States is somewhat unique among Western nations insofar as it treats military service as a portal to civilian job opportunity through training and education benefits. 

Yet even with the famous benefits of the G.I. Bill, military service is confined within a narrow band of the population, and it is a very rare thing for someone to enlist without having also had a family member serve before them.  The military is quite literally a family profession.

This seems to be even more the case in socially-stratified societies in Europe.  Military families there might proudly point to ancestors not only fighting during the world wars but also to the Napoleonic conflicts a century earlier.  Years ago I spoke with a British “squaddie” who told me his lieutenant could trace his military lineage back to the army Marlborough, more than 300 years ago.

I mention this because this article shows how the ongoing breakdown of legitimacy is affecting the civil/military relationship.

France is famously politically unstable, of course, having gone through two empires, one restoration and five republics since the United States ratified its Constitution.

Mark Steyn has repeatedly pointed out that when “respectable” parties take important issues off the table, it naturally falls to “unrespectable” parties to pick them up.  This in turn calls the political system itself into question and strikes at the core of government’s legitimacy.

In the UK, a great many of people have to wonder why they even voted on the question of Brexit since exactly no one in the political establishment is inclined to follow through with it. 

Similarly, there is a multi-party agreement that unlimited immigration by people who absolutely refuse to assimilate and bring rampant crime.  To disagree with this is expressly forbidden and will earn one a visit by the police.

The unhappy truth of the matter is that a great many military coups come as a relief to the population.  When democracy devolves into factionalism and civil disorder, only a strong hand can bring a semblance of peace. 

The “end of history” in 1991 was supposed to make that impossible, but as we see with the return of medieval disease outbreaks in the progressive paradise of California, history can and often does repeat itself.

Trump visits North Korea

The critics will say the meeting was only symbolic, but that's the point.

Symbols exist because they mean something.  The left is obsessed with symbolism and much of their time seems consumed with inventing honors to bestow on one another.  Actual positive results?

Not so much.

Where this goes, no one can say, but it's clear that Trump is driving a wedge between North Korea and China.  As in so many other areas, he's refused to play the game he was offered because doing so was a sucker's bet.  Instead he's flipped the table and is doing his own thing.

Just as with the debate over immigrant, tariffs and abortion, Trump refuses to accept the old rules where conservatives play the role of noble losers while the Democrats stack the deck at every turn.

I don't even need to look, but I'm sure Max  Boot, Bill Kristol and the rest of the neocon warmongers are besides themselves with rage.  Why Trump is giving away the farm!  Kim doesn't deserve this level of respect!

Of course if Trump was full of bluster and following the same failed policies they touted for decades, they'd be insisting he was a madman bent on starting World War III, so there's a reason why such people are properly ignored.

In terms of the event itself, there is an upper limit to "firsts" in terms of breakthrough diplomacy.  On the one hand, this may all play out and stall, leaving no real change.  This is the risk Trump is running.

But the potential gain is considerable.  North Korea is built on a cult of personality.  Without the reverential awe the Kim family holds, all the security forces in the world would be useless.  He can only shake hands and embrace so many times before his people violently try to take the peaceful payoff he's dangling before them.

This might have been part of the discussion he had with his Chinese masters: put simply, he can't hold on indefinitely.  Unless China's willing to put aside the fiction of independence and send thousands of troops into to reinforce Kim's rule, there will eventually be an uprising by people tired of starving and willing to risk death for the prosperity they've been assured is already on the way.

That's the thing.  Rebellions rarely happen when things are getting worse; it's usually because there is an immediate hope that things can get better.  Seeing their leader greet the American leader and promise peace is like dangling the carrot before the proverbial mule.  It buys time for a while, but eventually the animal will need to eat.

I expect things to continue to move incrementally, lest the North Koreans lose control.  That's why there is this start-stop dynamic.  No one wants to see a border rush ala Germany.

In any event, we are witnessing historic events, even if the media would rather focus on weirdos claiming a non-rape rape in a dressing room a quarter century ago.