Posse Incitatus

Veterans Day 2019

This Veterans Day finds our nation in a strange place.

For the first time in history, we have president who was targeted by a subordinate for essentially conducting foreign policy without the Establishment's permission.  Indeed, the very term "whistleblower" has no application here, since military officers are expected to obey the orders of the president, not run to Congress under cover of anonymity and whine about them.

This is only the most recent example of military leaders not so openly declaring that military decisions are too important to be left to the people with Constitutional power to make them.  The Syria withdrawal appeared haphazard because it was resisted to the last minute.

Interestingly, a majority of veterans now consider the Global War on Terror - both in Iraq and Afghanistan - to be not worth the effort.  I agree.

In both instances, what was called for was a rapid, punitive strike to cripple their capabilities and serve as an object lesson to other hostile regimes.

The incompetence is bipartisan and apparently no lessons have been learned.  The same people who have gotten it wrong for the last three decades continue to get it wrong and are now trying to subvert the Constitutional order so they can keep getting it wrong, forever.

Today we honor those who served and that honor stems from the oath they take - not to an individual, or a party, or a policy, but to the Constitution itself.    The US is unique in both the type of oath and the fidelity with which it has been observed for more than two centuries.

Thank you.

The headless Islamic State

One of the weirdest elements of our current age is how the people who fancy themselves experts keep getting things wrong - and then expect people to keep listening to them!

The Obama Administration sowed chaos across the globe, stumbling from one disaster to another, learning nothing in the process.  In another age, they'd be mocked and driven from polite society rather than constantly consulted about all the awful things that are sure to result from Trump ignoring their pin-headed advice.

The other aspect of Never Trumpism is the perverse desire to stand against anything and everything Trump is for.  The death of would-be Caliph of the Islamic State should be a day anyone with a moiety of their marbles would celebrate, and yet the fake press immediately busied itself with trying to rehab the fanatical killer.

That is of course the predictable end of Never Trumpism - his successful policies which have brought renewed American prosperity and hope are now the worst possible news.   Having gotten Syria dead wrong, I anticipate a turn back to "recession mania" before trying to pump some meaningless RUSSIA hype.

Of course all that will be disrupted once the indictments come down.  I've no idea when it will happen, but the latest incendiary filing in the Flynn case indicates that the whole Spygate fiasco is about to be exposed in a way that will have even the lying mainstream media struggling to cover it up.

The word of the day is "Wexit"

Yesterday Canada’s election results were tallied and Justin from Canada managed to hang onto his premiership in a minority government.

The failure of the Canadian right to take down a nepotist dilettante is sadly not news.  While I don’t know much about the Conservative leader, it’s pretty clear he ran on bland program designed not to offend anyone and promised minimal changes.  Bob Dole with a maple leaf.

Where things get interesting is the in the details of the Liberals’ victory.  The western provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta – which are heavily reliant on the energy industry – were swept clean of Liberals.  A primary issue for these voters was that of “climate change,” which is to say Justin’s plan to “de-carbonize” Canada by shutting down fuel production and heavy industry.  Apparently the layoff notices are already going out.

The current theory on revolutions is that they are not the product of worsening conditions so much as unmet expectations.  Indeed, revolutions often break out because things aren’t getting better fast enough, or there is a slight retreat after steady gains.  This is how Venezuela and Cuba can maintain steady almost unchallenged regimes at a subsistence level while Hong Kong is in open rebellion against far less repression.

Thus, after years of growing prosperity, the citizens of the western provinces are confronting the possibility that their entire economy will be tanked so the black-faced premier and take his virtue-signaling to new levels.

Otherwise respectable politicians are now broaching the possibility of “Wexit,” the breakup of the Canadian federation by these disgruntled provinces, who could use the United States as an outlet for their valuable commodities.  I’m sure the Trump administration would be more than happy to oblige them.

Interestingly, Canada already has a mechanism for secession in place, thanks to the francophone grifters in Quebec, who never met a subsidy they wouldn’t take.  How this plays out is anyone’s guess, but I see it as yet another sign of institutional failure. 

In normal times, the Liberals would fire the leader who led them into minority and govern with great moderation, knowing that they won only a third of the popular vote.  Instead, they seem set on forging ahead with their platform, relying on more radical allies to help them with the votes necessary to push ahead.  Call it a Canadian Popular Front.

Such coalitions rarely end well – either for the partners or the country they are supposed to serve.

A few years, back, I would dismiss Wexit as a fantasy, but now I’m not sure.  Trudeau has taken plenty of pot-shots at the US over the years and seems spectacularly incompetent.  If anyone can force a showdown, it would be him.

The War Party's Turkish Delight

Has anyone in my lifetime brought more clarity to the political scene than Donald Trump?  For all the claims that he lies, the man has an uncanny ability to expose the hypocrisy of the Ruling Class.

His announcement that US forces would be withdrawn from the area of Turkish incursion was one of the best examples of this.  Right on cue, people who three years ago insisted that Trump would start a shooting war in Korea are now screaming that he’s a coward for not forcing a military confrontation with NATO ally Turkey.

This is insanity on stilts.

Let us review the facts.

The United State is not at war with Syria. 

Congress has made no declaration of war, nor has any administration articulated a long-term reason for US forces to be on Syrian soil.  The reason we are there was to pursue renegade elements of the Al Qaeda splinter group ISIS after it overran much of Iraq.

The recognized government of Syria is the regime of Bashar Assad.  To maintain his tyrannical (but legally acknowledged) regime, he has solicited aid from Iran and Russia.

Turkey has been using Syria as a sandbox to hammer Kurds, some of whom like us, some of whom are Communist terrorists.

Indeed, the fact that one cannot simply summarize the situation proves that the Bush-Obama “strategic experts” have created a complete mess.

Trump’s solution is therefore a sensible one: leave.

There is no clear strategic goal in Syria for the United States.  ISIS has been militarily defeated.  Should the Assad regime reconquer its territory, it will not allow ISIS to return.  ISIS and the Alawite Syrians (which is what the Assad family is) are mortal enemies.

At the same time, the US cannot openly wage war on Turkey as this would destroy NATO.

Remember NATO?  That was the thing Trump is always accused of undermining.  Odd that getting into a military confrontation with a NATO member doesn’t concern the same people wagging their finger that Trump wasn’t being nice to them.

Strangely silent in all of this is the “peace wing” of the Democrat Party.  Seems they’ve been taking a nap since January of 2009.  I guess when a Democrat starts pointless and bloody wars of choice, it isn’t really a problem for them.

The US military is overstretched and exhausted from endless and winless wars.  Those who serve are often maligned as bloodthirsty killbots (on this very blog, in fact, go through the archives), but in fact they sign up to defend their nation, and they’re mortally tired.

It’s interesting that none of the people claiming a moral duty to wage another pointless conflict have a personal investment in the enterprise.

They will not be on the firing line.

I used to deride the “chickenhawk” slur, but I do find it interesting that many of the same people who threw it around freely in 2002 have become the thing they said they hated.

Actually, the DC Establishment does have an interest – profit.

Again, the Dems pounded away on Haliburton and Dick Cheney, but once again we see that graft is a bipartisan activity.  Joe Biden’s brother made a fortune in Iraq.  How convenient.

Of course Joe Biden’s finances are now off limit to investigative reporting because Orange Man Bad, but back when people cared about war profiteers, MSNBCBSABCNN would have been crawling up his rectum to report this stuff.

All of which is why Trump is doing the right thing.  He’s exposing the warmongers and demonstration who has the nation’s strategic interest at heart and who is content to let the bodybags continue to stream back home with no end in sight.

Is Ukraine the new RUSSIA?

One of the things I learned under Bill Clinton's presidency is that whenever a Democrat has broken a law, there will immediately be media reports that Republicans have done the same thing, only worse.

It was a novel invention 30 years ago, but now it's becoming a dull, predictable routine.

In other words: the magic is gone.

Clearly Joe Biden and the Obama administration know they are vulnerable on this.  There's also the lingering question of Uranium One and the decision process in approving the sale of a strategic ore to the eeeevil Vladimir Putin.

Based on experience, I'm going to assume that this whole fake scandal is an attempt to get in front of new revelations about both Biden and Clinton.  Just as the same two photos of Trump in the same room with Jeffrey Epstein were the only ones used in an effort to tie Trump to the noted sex-trafficker, so the same hackneyed allegations are being trotted out as cover for the corrupt Deep State.

The problem as that - as with Epstein - the Clinton ties are far deeper and Trump isn't shy about pointing them out.

Adding to the risk is the fact that the federal government is no loner a wholly-owned subsidiary of Clinton Inc.  There are still pockets of resistance, but there are also honest cops who seem determined to break some of these cases open.

ClintonWorld is in eclipse.  It's power came from the ability to dispense political favors and that influence is fading.  Without it, the foreign hired guns are no longer willing to do the dirty deeds that gets them paid.  In fact, they may well turn on their prior benefactors who were stiffed by Hillary's failure to win the White House.

There are a lot of unpaid I.O.U.s out there and the holders are likely looking for some payback.

 

Another China retreat?

Over the weekend, Communist China announced that it was lifting tariffs against soy and pork products from the US.

If this is the case (note that the ChiComs lie early and often), it would be a significant win for Trump's trade policies.

As we've pointed out several times, the US holds the upper hand in this dispute.  The US is almost entirely self-sufficient, and only allowed itself to become dependent on Chinese manufactured goods through a combination of laziness and corporate greed.

China, on the other hand, cannot even feed itself.  This dependency goes behind basic nutrition to prestige items like pork, which is highly-valued in China.

The Communist regime's legitimacy rests in large part on increasing prosperity.  Forcing people to cut back on favorite foods while factories close undermines that legitimacy and strikes at the heart of the regime's power. 

There is also the problem that the rest of the world doesn't have enough soy or pork to feed China.  America remains the garden of the world, and without our foodstuffs, global famine is a certainty.

Trump's economic team has always known this, and it's worth noting that while the national security and political appointees seem to have regular turnover, the economic side of the administration remains stable and successful.  This is perhaps because Trump understands that without a firm economic footing, all else is weakened.  China's leaders are now learning the same lesson.

9/11 Comes of Age

The artificial outrage over the Trump Administration seeking a negotiated settlement to the Afghan War tells us all we need to know about the Bipartisan Establishment and the Democrat-funded "peace movement."

They are both incompetent and fake.

War is not a condition to be managed, it is an existential struggle for those involved.  It is true that a coldly rational policy might require sacrifice for a greater strategic aim, but no such vision is now being articulated regarding Afghanistan.  It's a quagmire so we must stay because that's what we have to do.

It's significant that our current Ruling Class is entirely insulated from the war's costs but richly rewarded by its benefits.

This is why Trump's effort to wind down the now-aimless struggle are being attacked from the left of all places.  So much for Cindy Sheehan.  The widows and orphans of the current war are drawn from the Deplorable class, so no attention need be paid them.

The desire to smear Trump as anti-military or defeatist will fail, just as all the other smears have failed because the truth is unmistakable.  Actual combatants and their families are tired of a war without end.  The ardent volunteers of 18 years ago are now watching their children come of military age to take up the torch from failing hands, but to what end? 

A punitive expedition to Afghanistan was always a good idea, and the installation of a friendly client government was a not unreasonable solution.  But one cannot "reconstruct" a society that never was.  George W. Bush ran for president in part by ridiculing "nation-building," and yet he was the worst nation-builder of them all.

Just as the attacks 18 years ago this morning tore away the illusions that our Ruling Class knew what it was doing, so the bumbling effort since has further destroyed their credibility.  In a sense, this is the 9/11 about 9/11.

China Blinks

It appears the Hong Kong protestors have won.

The extradition bill, which would effectively negate the "two systems, one country" policy by making Hong Kong residents subject to Chi-Com laws, has been formally withdrawn.

This is a great victory for the protestors, but it is worth noting that it has not taken place in a vacuum.

Donald Trump's administration has consistently been applying multi-faceted strategies to undermine the ChiComs' economic, military and political positions.

The tariffs get a lot of ink, but just as significant was the decision last month to sell some of the most advanced fighter aircraft in the world to Taiwan, which still styles itself the lawful government of China.

The F-16V is the latest variant of a proven weapons platform, and something the ChiComs deeply fear.   Taiwan’s air force was in dire need of upgrades to keep pace with its mainland rival and this has the potential to significantly shift the strategic balance.

Here again we see how Trump doesn’t just offer diplomatic carrots – he’s also got a handy supply of sticks as well.

Back to the trade front, Japan has agreed to buy up a considerable quantity of US corn, welcome news for farmers struggling to move their crops.  This also demonstrates to the ChiComs that the US is not alone in this contest.

Given the damage done by all these policies, the Chinese had little choice regarding Hong King.

The fact is tanks do very poorly in cities.  One need only look back at the Russian debacle in Grozny during the 1990s to see why trying to use armored might to bring a hostile city to heel is a bad idea.

The Russians later retook the city, but only by using World War II-style massed artillery bombardments, moving street by street.  Something like that would be out of the question in Hong Kong since it would demonstrate to the world that the Peoples’ Liberation Army can’t even control its home turf.

Thus a Tiananmen-style crackdown was simply impossible in the urban jungle of Hong Kong.

The question now is: what comes next?  Will the protestors go home, or will the movement spread to the mainland?  Beijing has lost face, and still refuses to come to terms on a trade deal with the US.  That means more factories closing, more unemployment and more discontent.

The great danger is that the Chinese Ruling Class will lose control and bring on general chaos.  Such is usually the fate of China's ruling dynasties.  None of them tend to end well.

Molotov-Ribbentrop at 80: The concentrated essence of unprincipled leftism

Today marks the 80^th anniversary of the infamous Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact, which sealed the fate of Poland and set the stage for World War II.

The alliance was purely tactical for both parties.  Joseph Stalin wanted to push his frontier further west and gain hegemony over western Poland, parts of Finland and the Baltic States.  Adolf Hitler wanted to avoid a second front during his ongoing showdown with the western Allies.

After years of heated vitriol, both totalitarian states turned on a dime, going from hating one another to proclaiming the wisdom of rapprochement so they could fight the true common enemy, western liberal democracy and capitalism.

The alliance was the basis for George Orwell’s famous formulation that “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia,” reflecting the ease with which the propagandists did a complete reversal on the Nazi-Soviet relationship and then reversed themselves again when Germany invaded the Soviet Union in June of 1941.

The crucial lesson of this anniversary is that the left is utterly without principle.  It has but one goal: total, unbridled power.

This is how people who claim to worry about carbon emissions fly around on private jets and live lavish lifestyles while hectoring poor people to give up hamburgers.

It is how we must “believe all women” - unless they are accusing Bill Clinton.

Barack Obama and Eric Holder are free to call for more gun control even though it was their policy not to prosecute gun law violations.

The means are irrelevant to these people and even their goals are negotiable because all that matters is power for its own sake.  Arguably, they don’t have a clear vision of what they will do with it, other than enjoy its free and easy exercise.

Oh, and crush their enemies utterly.  That part at least is known.

This is why the best analogy to the contemporary US is not its previous civil war, but rather then one in Spain from 1936 to 1939.  Then as now, a major part of the divide was between the right – who respected institutions and culture – and the left, which respecting nothing but its quest for power.

The Spanish “Republic” was nothing of the sort, and it leaders were quite willing to rule by decree and use political assassinations and militias to achieve their goals.

Far from being a true Popular Front, the government was bitterly divided between Socialists, Communists and Anarchists, with only the common enemy of traditional Spanish culture and the Catholic Church holding them together.

What made the war inevitable, with the Popular Front’s abuse of power and its seeming pleasure in flaunting it.  Here we see a clear parallel with the left’s treatment of Antifa.  Just as in Spain, law enforcement has zero interest in breaking up the terrorist organization and instead blames their atrocities on their victims.

All of this has the effect of radicalizing the middle class, which is the crucial precondition for civil war.

The left seems convinced that this won’t happen, or that if it does, they will win easily.  The Popular Front felt the same way and it didn’t work out well for them.

Spain was the first time fascists and communists clashed militarily, with the Soviet Union backing the Republic while Germany and Italy sided with the insurgent Nationalists.

It was billed by both sides as an existential struggle and yet no sooner had the Spanish war drawn to a close than Hitler and Stalin were able to forge their infamous pact.

Because the pursuit of power demanded it and both Stalin and Hitler were leftists in every sense.

Today should be a reminder that the left is implacable, knowing no decent limits and eager to make a deal with anyone and everything to achieve power.

Meanwhile, in China...

It may seem strange for me of all people to say this, but I find the current iteration of the gun control debate painfully boring.

Given that the Dems want the southern border erased, its hard to take their claims of wanting to eliminate guns seriously. 

I think the president knows this and is using the opportunity to bait them into demanding the arrest and imprisonment of everyone with a gun, because that’s how the Dems roll now.

Of far more significance is the growing and seemingly implacable unrest in Hong Kong.

What started as street demonstrations against an extradition law, have continued to grow in both size and scope, with movement leaders demanding the removal of Beijing’s governor and – potentially – the overthrow of the Communist system.

This may seem like hyperbole, but a general strike yesterday brought the former British colony to a virtual standstill.  The local police are overwhelmed and demoralized while the protestors continue to evolve new approaches and methods to resistance.

So far the mainland has be quiet, but the Chinese economy is shuddering to an uneasy halt in response to the Trump administration’s escalating trade war.

Across China, factories are being idled as the Great On-Shoring continues. 

China’s latest gambit is to devalue their currency, which is clearly intended to undercut the tariffs as well as act as a tariff against American imports, which will become more expensive.

Currency manipulation is a dangerous game, however, especially for a country with such a lop-sided and poorly documented economic sector.  China relies heavily on US food imports, the devaluation and their attempted retaliatory tariffs could create a perfect storm of falling employment and rising food prices.

I’ve mentioned this before, but throughout recorded history China’s leaders have grossly misjudged the motives and capabilities of foreign opponents.  This is why China is frequently conquered by foreign powers yet consistently struggles to retain control over non-core areas. 

No doubt a number of American politicians (especially Sen. Diane Feinstein) are telling the ChiComs that once Trump is defeated in 2020, everything will go back to normal.

But such a defeat is hardly a foregone conclusion and even if a Democrat somehow gains the White house, It’s not clear they will be able to revert to policies that close the newly-reopened factories. 

The Chinese are always given credit for playing a "long game," but Trump is doing likewise.  Like the Chinese, he is also bringing the full spectrum of American power to bear on his objective.

How the Chinese respond will determine whether the ChiComs are able to overcome, or merely become the most recent failed dynasty.