The prevalence of government shutdowns are a key indicator of the breakdown of the political system. Such impasses were formerly rare because the system itself prevented them.
Under the now almost-forgotten legislative procedure known as "regular order," bills for each department were generated at the start of the year. These passed through committees, were marked up, modified and passed by each chamber in turn. If there were differences between them, a conference committee reconciled them and the final bill was presented to the president for his signature.
A failure at any point in this process would result in a loss of funding for a single department. The limited scope of the bill provided a check on non-related items, though of course these "riders" were still added in.
The system was far from corruption-free, but it at least had the virtue of keeping the lights on year after year.
When the Democrats gained control of Congress under Dubya, this system went out the window in exchange for massive, impenetrable "omnibus" bills that covered everything under the sun. The entire discretionary federal budget was "take it or leave it." Mostly, it was taken.
Among the many lies the GOP Establishment told its base when it sought to regain control of Congress was the fable that "regular order" would return. Clearly, this hasn't happened and it was never meant to happen. For all his pathetic excuses, Paul Ryan at least had the power to sort out budget bills, but this was a hill he never intended to fight on, let alone die.
This is because omnibus bills allow the GOP to vote for things it knows its base hates but that its corporate masters like. The looming threat of a (partial) government shutdown gave the GOP Establishment at every level the perfect excuse to cave into Democrats. Dubya signed it because he was too responsible to harm the nation.
The GOP House and Senate flirted with it under Obama, but mostly Ted Cruz was being an opportunist. No actual concessions were wanted and none were gained.
And so here we are again, but this time may be different. Donald Trump can take or leave the job and if he wants a second term, he needs wall funding.
He also has a higher pain threshold than anyone in DC. That is why the shutdown continues.
Chuck Schumer and the Democrats have a fascinating dilemma. They can cave now and give the new Democrat-controlled House of Representatives a clean slate to torment Trump over the next year, or they can hand Speaker Pelosi a steaming dog turd on her very first day in the big chair. Of course, the Dems could but all sorts of goofy crap in the bill that the GOP Senate would then be compelled to strip out, but doing so would immediately mark Pelosi's restored reign as unserious.
Alternatively, they could go all-in, and it's hard to think of a less auspicious look for the 2020 Democrat contenders than forcing federal employees to endure payless paydays because they hate border security.
Trump knows this, which is why he timed the shutdown for now rather than earlier in December. Had he held firm earlier, the payless paydays would have hit during the Christmas-New Year week, which would be horrific optics. Pelosi's speakership would still be a distant future event, not a looming one.
But now all of these lines are converging and Trump loves nothing so much as creating chaos and forcing his opponent to figure out how to deal with it.
As a final added bonus, the Mueller witch-hunt will be a secondary consideration at best. Lots of Democrat cultists are ready for the House to impeach him as soon as the Dem majority is sworn in. A shutdown federal government with unpaid civil servants will make this an even more dubious strategy, since it will demonstrate to the world that the Dems are more interested in getting Trump than funding the government or border security.
President Trump consistently traps his opponents into lose-lose situations. When Trump can't arrange that, he shifts terrain (usually to the dismay of his supporters), but such shifts are only short-term. The master strategist has been maneuvering for a while and it will be fascinating to see his next move.
Comments