While the first draft of history is often essential to conveying the thoughts of the participants and the public perception of events as they unfolded, they are almost always incorrect. It is only later that we learn the full story (or as much of it as we can find).
With the latest series of revelations regarding the RUSSIA dossier, it seems to me a useful thought exercise to go back and put these events in a broader context. This will perhaps illustrate just how remarkable Donald Trump's victory was as well as the deep corruption within the Obama administration.
Caveats
Before proceeding, I must emphasize that this is entirely speculative. I'm not going to annotate or bookmark everything because that would only bog things down. I ask potential libel attorneys to treat this as a work of fiction, specifically alternative history because none of what I write can be set down as irrefutable fact.
In line with this, I am proceeding from a number of assumptions which remain open to dispute.
The first is that the Clinton campaign had only two core competencies: Raising money and destroying internal opposition. Beyond this, they were stunningly inept.
(Note that I omit savvy media skills because any Democrat will be credited with this. One thing we now know is that political reporters regularly submitted their stories to Team Clinton for approval and that their editors were absolutely fine with this. If the "mainstream" press cared at all about their reputation as neutral observers, there would have been a raft of firings and the people responsible would have been unemployable. That this didn't happen speaks volumes.)
The second is that the federal bureaucracy is completely corrupt. As we've seen with the latest revelations of gross prosecutorial misconduct in the Clive Bundy case, the Ted Stevens case, the FBI crime lab and of course the IRS scandal. The problem is not that "bad apples" do their thing; it is that those responsible are never punished. This establishes a culture where anything goes.
With that out of the way, let us begin.
The Situation: Summer, 2015
In retrospect, Donald Trump's success in the GOP primaries is easy to explain: He was the only candidate willing to talk about trade and immigration. Scott Walker flirted with the idea but was told by his backers to shut up and his candidacy immediately collapsed.
Trump was widely hated by the GOP establishment, however, so his victory was hardly a given. Instead, the three front-runners were generally regarded as Rubio, Cruz and of course Jeb Bush.
Meanwhile, we now know that the Democrat primary was an exercise in Kabuki. Joe Biden's testing of the waters wasn't about his obligation to his late son or any of the nonsense the media reported, it was about discovering that the DNC had already been reduced to a vassal state of the Clinton campaign. Trying to unwind that while taking on the GOP for Obama's third term was seen as too much for Biden, who took a pass.
There is indication that the intelligence agencies paid particular attention to the campaign at this early date. They were likely still absorbed trying to salvage the US strategic position in Syria, Iraq and the South China Sea. Obama's people were trying to burnish his reputation, nothing more.
One year later: June, 2016
The strategic environment at this point was totally transformed. Trump had systematically destroyed every one of his opponents, but had opened serious rifts in the GOP while doing so. At the same time, the Sanders campaign was creating its own schism within the Democrat ranks. Sanders never had the killer instinct necessary to take on Hillary, but he was tenacious.
It's interesting to speculate what would have happened if the Associated Press hadn't put both its thumbs on the scale and declared Hillary the nominee (due to super-delegates) the day before the California primary.
At any rate, by this point the GOP establishment was in disarray. Their opposition research project with Fusion GPS had produced nothing actionable, so they dropped it. Fusion GPS then turned to the Dems and offered to build upon what they already had. This offer was accepted.
The assumption within the White House was that Hillary would coast to an easy victory against Trump, whose own party was on the brink of civil war. Nascent Quisling Never Trumpers feverishly dreamed up improbably schemes where Trump was denied the nomination in a delegate vote and (to get ahead a little bit) then tried to draft stalking horse candidates to throw the election to Hillary.
Under the circumstances, it's hard to understand why the administration would take the unprecedented step of using the national security apparatus to monitor Trump's campaign, but the simplest explanation was that they did it because they could.
At no point in the preceding eight years had Obama not availed himself of an opportunity to exercise power, legally or otherwise. Ruling by decree was becoming a habit and besides, who would investigate it? Hillary might not relish being told after the fact that she had gotten a big push from Obama, but she wouldn't be pissed enough to open up an investigation that would tarnish her victory.
Comey: The Bumbling Clinton Ally
At the same time Hillary was wrapping up the nomination, the FBI was busy covering up her email scandal. FBI chief James Comey was working to find every excuse to render the case moot, both by downplaying its seriousness and by offering immunity deals that would render prosecution impossible. When he made his final statement in July, no one observing it could imagine that it had been drafted in advance of the investigation.
Comey himself figured it preserved his reputation but also got Hillary of the hook, which was key.
The problem Comey faced was that when Anthony Weiner finally self-destructed later on, the email issue resurfaced. Having said that there was no ill intent, he had to find a way to:
1. Appear to take the matter seriously, and
2. Clear Hillary a second time.
His solution was typically inept - opening and then closing it during the final stretch of the campaign. Hillary would list this as one of the myriad things that cost her the campaign, but at the time her lead appeared insurmountable. Comey - like everyone else - figured she would win and could afford to sacrifice a couple of style points.
The Trumpening and its Aftermath
It's hard to overstate the shock and disbelief that attended Trump's victory. In preparation for this post, I re-read some of the comment threads on election night. Not only were people amazed by the fact of his victory, but the extent of it - shattering the Blue Wall of the Upper Midwest - was hard to accept or understand.
In the hours following this momentous event, the participants were too stunned to think things through. One of the few bright spots in this whole sordid episode is the fact that even with all of the corruption, force of habit dictated that Hillary concede and that the Obama administration appear gracious in defeat.
It was only later that the RUSSIA story emerged, and this was not just because Hillary's partisans had agreed it needed an excuse - it was also because the FBI and national security apparatus realized that the change of administrations would reveal their dirty tricks.
This is why the narrative shifted from Obama loudly insisting that his government had kept the election pure to RUSSIAN collusion.
At the same time, the Obama holdovers began their orchestrated campaign of #Resistance, designed to render the bureaucracy ungovernable. Blind-sided by this, Trump hung Flynn out to dry and tried to get on with the business of staffing his administration, but everywhere he turned, he was thwarted.
From Hasty Defense to Deliberate Counterattack
The clumsy effort to force Trump to resign made little sense at the time, but in retrospect it has a certain logic to it. If you know that you've blatantly violated federal privacy laws, and participated in a conspiracy to do so, there isn't much you won't do to cover up your crimes.
Being new to the hothouse politics of Washington, Trump tried to compartmentalize the RUSSIA drama. However, he also knew that Comey was playing a double-game and being too smart by half. At this point, no one can seriously argue that Comey didn't deserve his firing. The only proven coverup is the one Comey created for Hillary. The selection of Robert Mueller to head the investigation seemed rational at the time, though there were some clear warning signs.
And here we have to pause and ask: What did the president know and when did he know it?
No, I don't mean to imply that he had done anything illegal, but rather what did he know about the FBI, Mueller and the corruption within that organization?
It is entirely possible (indeed likely) that non-corrupt elements were by this point mapping out the #Resistance cells within those organizations. What if picking Mueller was a deliberate act, designed to flush out his accomplices?
I do not believe that Donald Trump is a God-Emperor or super genius, but he is a man of above-average intelligence and a quick study. He is capable of grasping sophisticated concepts and navigating difficult political and strategic environments with considerable skill.
He also understands the importance of having experts to cover his blind spots.
Reince Priebus was a skilled politician, but he clearly had no idea what was going on in the background. He likely assumed that this would be like any other administration, with its usual assortment of leaks, fake scandals and minor staff shuffles. He simply was not prepared to wage a counter-insurgency.
Others within Trump's inner circle were, and it is no coincidence that his responses have grown sharper, more disciplined and more effective since retired Gen. Kelly has taken over the White House staff.
To a casual observer, it is impossible to tell if inertia is the result of confusion or a deliberate act. Trump's unwillingness to fire or even pressure Mueller was once interpreted as irresolution but it now looks like a careful strategy.
(Note that I do not exclude the policy that it is a combination of both - it started as a confused response but was subsequently embraced as a strategic move.)
A Cunning Conspiracy Meets the Dunning-Kruger Effect
In all of this, the signature element has been that whatever conspiracy was hatched at the FBI, NSA or CIA (or from all three), it was spectacularly ineffective.
This is because one of the signature elements of the modern Democrat party is its colossal incompetence. For some years there has been speculation that man of the Obama administration failures were planned.
Obamacare was designed to crater the American health system.
Obama's economic policy was designed to destroy growth.
The Iran and Russia overtures were designed to weaken the US and destroy its strategic position.
I think it is clear that none of these propositions are true.
Obama wanted nothing more than to have Obamacare work and be a monument to his genius. That it failed is a mystery to its supporters.
Similarly, the left sincerely believes Keynesian economics works. Their projections were that the economy would surge just in time for Obama's re-election bid and the resulting prosperity would usher in a permanent Democrat majority.
In foreign policy, the progressives believe the US has no true enemies only adversaries we haven't won over through kindness and concessions.
Because they cannot ever admit failure on the part of their policies, they double down again and again in an effort to make their idea work. When it doesn't, the reason is beyond their control, such as "the American people weren't smart enough to appreciate us," or "I underestimated the level of racism and sexism in the electorate."
Hillary's post-election book is one giant illustration of this.
The botched attempt to fix the election by the intelligence agencies falls squarely into this category. Reading the leaked texts and emails of Mueller's staff proves that these people are legends in their own minds yet staggeringly stupid in performing their jobs.
Obviously, all the above is purely speculative, but it paints a picture consistent with everything we know. I look forward to getting more of the story as the plot continues to come apart, but it may be for future generations to grasp the whole monumental idiocy of the thing.
Recent Comments