Posse Incitatus

Gerald Ford, R.I.P.

The passing of former President Gerald R. Ford is another milestone in the distancing of this nation from the Watergate era.  "Deep Throat" has been unmasked (and is senile), Nixon is dead and now so is his successor.  We are too young to remember the scandal (our parents recall watching the hearings on the television as we crawled around and took our first steps), but we were steeped in its mythologies from the earliest days.

We were taught that the Democrats were the party of Good Government and that they and they alone could strip away Republican cynicism and restore accountability to the presidency.  Four years of Bill Clinton demonstrated otherwise.

Our prayers go out to the Ford family.  We will also be taking a break from blogging for about a week as we are involved in some of the funeral activities.  We haven't been terribly active of late due to the holidays and a desire to get away from the computer and spend time with the Junior Posse Members - a desire made much stronger by our recent serious illness.

However we look forward to returning in January with more commentary and hopefully an uptick in gunblogging.

In the mean time, Sithkitten and perhaps others will hopefully keep the place warm.

Ethiopia at war

The Posse has watched the reports from the Strategy Page with interest over the years, but we have been paying particular attention to the situation in Somalia and Ethiopia's growing intervention there against the Islamic Court militias.

What is interesting is that there is not a peep of dissent from the international community.  As Austin Bay notes, Ethiopia did a superb job of winning support within Africa for its intervention.

What is more, both of the warring parties claim to have killed thousands of the other side.

In essence, we are seeing what real warfare looks like - not the sanitized, Westernized, made-for-TV-and-focus-groups warfare currently practiced.

Merry Christmas

The Posse wishes all of our readers a Merry Christmas.  One thing seems to follow another this year and the whole family has some sort of cold.  We shall remember this year as "Christmas of 2000-SICK."

Still, the tree is lit, the home is warm and we are grateful for the many blessings recieved.

Merry Christmas.

That old time religion

Via the hated Instapundit, the Posse is interested to see that the Anglicans are splitting every which way.

The Posse noted that this before and it is a glaring weakness of the article that it does not give any kind of reference point on church attendence and contributions.

The fact is that the embrace of liberalism-as-theology has been an unmitigated disaster, not only for society, but also for the churches that have done so.  Their membership has collapsed, their pews are empty and their clergy has become bitterly divided. 

Had the Anglicans simply remained true to their teachings, this painful episode wouldn't even be happening.  However, the temptation to water down one's moral teachings is powerful and many have eagerly sought out the admiration of newspaper editorial boards in preference to Divine Revelation.

But as the Bible says, you reap what you sow, and the bitter harvest of this short-sighted bid for low-impact morality has been rampant desertion.  After all, if one believes that the Bible is outmoded and needs to be updated, where does that leave the institution of church itself?  Why have someone preach to you for an hour a week when you can go pray by yourself and be totally free of judgement?

If God is nothing but love, surely there's nothing to be gained by offering a weekly tithe.  And so the pews empty.

In reaction to this there are the conservatives (a name that really doesn't apply, "traditionalists" would be better), who insist on standing up for the centuries of belief that built their faith.  They watch the ediface of their religion being undermined by its own leadership and they can't believe it.

If one is a believing Anglican, or Methodist or Presbyterian - that is to say, one buys into the orthodox teachings as written and recited for decades, how is one to react to the new attitudes?  Were those that went before stupid?  Were they fools and judgemental?  The liberalization movement is nothing less than a rejection of everything the denomination has ever stood for, and the leadership is simply too removed from reality to see it.

We wish the Protestants the best.  Obviously we threw our lot in with the Church, which under the Blessed Benedict is restoring orthodoxy and reaping a bountiful harvest of faithful as a result.

Basically, the rule seems to be this: if the New York Editorial board approves of your catechism, you're doomed.

Full power restored

The Posse is pleased to report that we're mostly healthy at this point.  We're off antibiotics and are able to move about and breathe normally.  There are still several layers of tests ahead of us and the extent of damage to our lungs is not yet clear, but we feel and look much better.  Almost back to normal, in fact.

Thanks again to our readers for the prayers and good wishes.

Full impulse power restored

While the Posse's illness has not yet been positively identified, we have been cleared to return to work on a limited basis.

Breathing is a lot easier (sleeping through the night without sedation!  What a concept!) and we have more energy, so we'll take it.  We've lost 10 pounds over the last two weeks, which has us looking a little more trim, but we can't recommend the "hospital breathing tube diet" just yet.

We're not up to warp speed yet, but each day brings a little improvement.

Thanks to our readers for their kind thoughts, prayers, comments and continued support.

The problems of stability

The Posse was pleased to see the hated Instapundit give prominent place to our Middle Eastern policy recommendations.  The irony is not lost on us that we were too sick to take note of the occasion.

Two commenters have offered varying criticisms, both of which deserve a response.

First, there is Keith G., who in response to our support for a free Iran had this to say:

Great! Just what we need: Another ham-handed approach to the middle east. With the exception of bombing Tehran, I can think of nothing that would cause middle class Iranians to hold their nose and support the current idiots running Iran today.

This is quite an assertion, and one without any basis in fact whatsoever.  Indeed, if one looks at tyrannies, one finds they very seldom "close ranks" in the manner described if offered a rallying point for resistance.  The Czechs, Hungarians and Poles all attempted to do just this.

History shows that nations in civil turmoil rarely, if ever, unite against an external threat.  Far from it, they usually go out of their way to seek external support.  During the Revolutionary War, the Americans had no problem allying with France, formerly an enemy.  Aid is aid, and American aid is highly valued, particularly because we are actually fondly thought of by the middle classes in Iran.

Indeed, the biggest criticism is that the US doesn't support its friends, not that we are too meddlesome.  To continue:

Notice how successful that tactic has been in opposing Castro.

As the current hoopla over Fidel Castro's imminent (?) demise indicates, a massive Cuban police state is needed to maintain control.  Were the US willing to topple Castro, he would fall.  Hell, had the Bay of Pigs had air support, he would probably have been a bad memory.

But the crux of the argument is found here, in this comment by Xanthippus:

Guys, as you can see from Iraq, stability is frequently in our interests. That you cannot see that (and your proposal that we declare war on virtually the entire Middle East) proves that you do not know what you are talking about.

Again, no explanation is given.  But let us examine exactly how "stability" benefits the US.

Terrorism remains a constant threat.  So long as Saddam Hussein was in power, the US was forced to maintain extensive military forces in the region, which both added to terrorism and provided targets for it. 

Furthermore, we defy anyone to explain how granting Syria and Iran permanent immunity from adverse consequences improves American security.  This form of "stability" is one in which our enemies pick at us until we run away or surrender.

That, by the way, seems to be the current idea: to do both.  To surrender to Iran on atomic weapons and run away from Iraq, allowing more Iranian terrorism.  The notion that this is "just desserts" defies any known form of either logic or strategic thinking.

Realism is supposed to be about enhancing national interest.  Cowering from adversarial regimes and granting them permanent immunity from retribution is the most un-realistic policy imaginable.

That is why we urged a stronger line.

For 60 years the West has turned an indulgent eye on the Middle East, hoping it will just go away.  This has manifestly failed.  The Middle East now is finally at the point where the neglect of the West and emerging technology allows it to export its problems globally.  The only answer to this is to alter the strategic landscape.

To do this, all options must be available.  If one wants to change the behavior of Iran or Syria, one must make it clear that invasion is a possibility.  Only then will other options have credibility.

It is a simple matter of game theory.  Our enemies know they have nothing to lose because we are too afraid to finish them.  Thus they can assassinate, bomb, and otherwise hinder our activities.

If one desires this behavior, the current policy is an excellent one.  However, if one does not, if one wishes to create a situation where Syria is no longer a thorn in our side and Iran ceases to menance both the global energy supply and Gulf security, then one must have some form of deterrence stronger than a nasty letter.

The Posse is messed up

Blogging has been light of late because the Posse was in the hospital from Tuesday to Thursday.  We are no longer dealing with pneumonia, but a sinister Mystery Disease that has yet to be identified.

The upshot is it is rather hard to breathe, so there goes our shooting opportunities (the gas and dust would be just too much).

Whether we are in Steven Den Beste territory remains to be seen.  Certainly we hope not.  The tests won't be back for a week and frankly we have no bloody idea what is gnawing on the ol' lung tissue. 

Best case: some freakish bacteria/viral combo that we're slowly, slowly beating down. 

Worst case:  oxygen tank from now on.

Needless to say, drug copays and such are mounting, so if the spirit of season takes our readers over to the tip jar, we thank you kindly.

The Posse's Middle Eastern Solution

The Posse is somewhat relieved to turn aside from the that is currently raging in our lungs to lighter fare: namely the hated Instapundit's blog symposium on changing US foreign policy.

In our younger years, we were considered to be "realists" of the kind that currently dominate the pinstripe back-seat driver circuit.  Back then realists were of the Kissinger mold: cold, ruthless, efficient.

The current lot are a disgrace to the name.  James Baker's group of pencil-necks values stability, not national interest.  This makes them unimaginative, not realistic.

The key is a regional solution.  We cannot wall off Iraq from the nations around it, nor should we wish to.  Instead, we should be exporting Iraq to the rest of the region.

This having been said, it has long been clear that the US plays by one set of rules, and its rivals use a far more effective and different set.

This needs to change.

The US need make no formal announcement, but it is time for Baby Assad to pay the piper.  CIA should begin planting stories of imminent coups, unrest and State Dept. hacks should start denying the Baby Assad's government will collapse within the next couple of months.

At the same time, the US should initiate cross-border raids to root out known terrorist sanctuaries in Syria, including air strikes.  If questioned, deny them.  Israel would be great at helping in this sort of thing.

While this is going on, the US should begin sending messages to Assad:  "Where do you want to retire?  Would you prefer a gallows in Damascus or the French Rivera?"

Regime change, more of it.

The effects of this policy on Iraq would be immediate.  With Syria rocking back, suddenly the insurgents would have less support to draw upon.  This then sets the state for the second move: Iran.

The US should immediately demand: 

1.  Cessation of all interference in Iraq

2.  Work on all nuclear weapons in Iran.

When Iran thumbs its nose, we should begin funding insurgent movements within Iran and formally recognize a regime in exile.  Give them money.  This was NOT done in Iraq and we are paying the price.

A regime in exile has problems, but at least it also has legitimacy and arms of its own to call upon.

Thus the Free Government of Iran should be given training facilities, equipment and propaganda (broadcast) support.

The goal in this is simple: show our enemies that we can play their games and hurt them worse than they can hurt us.

Within Iraq, we agree that the US cannot sort out the situation single-handedly; only the Iraqi government can do that.  The US is right to reassess our deployments there - and by this we don't mean fleeing to Okinawa.

Instead the question should be of creating true, honest ink-blots that spread out over the country.  Kurdistan is one such area.  Another would be some of the more peaceful southern provinces.  These areas should be provided with lavish aid and security and the Iraqis should start shouldering the load elsewhere.

The Iraqi Army is about as good as it is going to get without a change in leadership.  The only thing holding it back is its own government's weakness.  This is not a problem we can solve, but we can begin drawing down and pulling back to let it either stand on its own or devolve into a federal entity.

But this cannot happen alone.  Syria and Iran must feel pressure on them, or they will attempt to make an even bigger mess and claim credit for thwarting the Great Satan.  If Baby Assad is out of the picture and the mullahs are fighthing their own rebellion, their claims to victory will be harder to make.

Time for a new drug

The Posse's struggle with pneumonia has entered its second phase.  After a week of rest, heavy medication and non-stop coughing, Doc Yokum has pronounced us not cured.

No foolin', Doc.

So we are taking newer, more powerful antibiotics, the kind that cause urine to crystalize and one's innards to run out one's backside.  Truly, wonders of modern science.

We've also been issued an additional inhaler (the first one was clearly week) that is used as rocket fuel by NASA.  Certainly that's what it tastes like.

Bad news:  No booze, no pain pills, no fun.

Good news:  We can still take the sweet, sweet codeine cough syrup.  Too bad it tastes so bad.

The shooting match has been postponed yet another week and by Wednesday you will either read of the Posse Greatly Improved or the Posse Hospitalized. 

Thanks again for your kinds words of support.  Hopefully we'll get this thing licked for good.