Posse Incitatus

The light behind us

The news of the last few weeks has been uniformly grim.  Hezbollah has achieved de facto recognition in the international system as a state in its own right.

Meanwhile, the West continues to dither and ignore the increasing evidence that Iran is going to achieve its nuclear ambitions.

The Abyss is close, so close that we begin to wonder if we entered it and never noticed.

History has its uses, but the current conflict is without precedent.  There have been times when the West was too feeble to counter its enemies militarily, but never before has civilization faced such a crisis of will.

The only parallel perhaps is the decadence and arrogance of Rome as its frontiers collapsed and its empire fell to the barbarian hordes. 

It is increasingly clear that the West has thrown in the towel - if it hasn't actively joined the other side.

The fauxtography scandal was bad enough, but now we see the International Committee of the Red Cross has gotten into the act.

Meanwhile, journalists who are kidnapped, threatened with death and forcibly converted to an alien religion pronounce themselves "unharmed" when subsequently released.

The Posse supposes that this new definition of harm means that Ann Coulter's post-Sept. 11 call to forcibly convert the Middle East to Christianity was merely ahead of its time.

Why we like Rudy

Some days ago, Roger L. Simon looked at Rudy Guiliani's chances to obtain the Republican nomination for president.

At the time, the Posse was buried in work at the ranch and unable to add our thoughts.  We do so now.

National Review certainly took a dim view with their recent cover story, but the Posse is a bit more sanquine about his chances.

It should be noted that we are about as conservative as any:

We favor secure borders, aggressive military action, oppose homosexual "marriage," are pro-life and pro-gun.

Indeed, our Catholicism probably places us squarely in the center of the Religious Right.

So how can we support Guiliani?

It's simple.  We like his character.

Many leftists assume that "character" means personal morals.  It can, but it doesn't always.  For example, the problem we had with Bill Clinton wasn't his sexual promiscuity, but rather the poor judgement he generally showed in all his doings.  His sex scandals merely exposed the hypocrisy of the feminist left, who wanted to burn Bob Packwood at the stake but announced that as far as Clinton was concerned, the first grope was free (and maybe rape, if it was long enough ago).

Rudy has none of this baggage.  He has been unsuccessful in marriage and is demonstrably comfortable around gays.  So are we.  Dick Cheney has a lesbian daughter, which the Religious Right accepted with nary a shrug.  We aren't homophobes, despite what Andrew Sullivan says.

Certainly his stance on abortion and gun rights are ones we disagree with, but here too he has plenty of room to retreat.

A pro-life running mate would do much to assuage any fears in this respect, as would a pledge to nominate non-activist judges.

As far as gun rights, Rudy seems to have the typical attitude of an urban prosecutor: a dislike of private ownership without any real factual foundation.  It would be extremely easy for him to say that on the basis of what he's seen, he has changed his mind on gun control.  We'd actually be content if he said that he would sign no federal regulations and leave it up to the states.  Either is a win as far as we're concerned.

Of course his greatest strength  is his leadership.  He managed to take a city falling into chaos and straighten it out.  He took on liberalism's capital and triumphed.

And of course, he is pledged to focus on the war, something that is badly needed.

People forget that by the late 1930s, WInston Churchill was damaged goods.  Disgraced, discredited, isolated within his own party and stubbornly holding onto unpopular positions (on India, Ireland, finance, and the monarchy) he nevertheless won respect for one thing: he was a fighter.

We need such a warrior in the White House.  George W. Bush has been consumed by his critics and the war effort.  Never a great communicator, he has been hampered by his own bureaucracy and the CIA's attempts to topple his administration.  It was something he did not expect and was not prepared for.

Giuliani knows all about internal sabotage.  He knows about a hostile press, treacherous underlings and rebellious civil servants.  He knows how to get results.  We want those results.

Sen. John McCain is a non-starter.  He is tainted by his own insatiable appetite for media attention and love.  His willingness to "close the gunshow loophole" demonstrated that any lip-service he gives to gun rights is just that: a sham.  We can believe that Rudy is sincerely repentant on guns; we won't believe McCain.

But of course McCain's greatest sin is his effort to censor political speech.  How can we support a man who wants to shut us down?  Blogs are growing in power and McCain has made all of them his enemies.  Only a full-hearted repudiation of McCain-Feingold coupled with a major attempt to repeal it would salve this affront.

So there it is: Rudy endorsed by the Religious Right. 

Truth is stranger than fiction.

Let the purges begin

Sen. Joe Lieberman's defeat in his primary has caused a veritable explosion of commentary.  Much of it is overwrought, however the Posse cannot agree with the relaxed view taken by Captain Ed.  We believe this is in fact a significant development.

Why?

Because we take people at their word.  Michael Moore and Kos are already drawing up lists.  The great purge of pro-national security Democrats has begun.

The fact that the Kossacks haven't had a chance to field opponents in "red" states is meaningless - they couldn't have, because they didn't have the momentum or the confidence.  Now they do.

Lieberman's defeat wasn't about this election, it was about the future of the Democrat Party.

The ultimatum has been given.  Democrats that wish to avoid massively-funded primary challengers in 2008 now know the price of supporting a strong national security policy.  Unless they adhere to the extreme anti-war line, they will be targeted for liquidation.

What this will do (and is already doing) is convince moderate Dems to leave - and in this case "moderate" means "not willing to surrender to militant Islam."

We have one other observation.  The departure of Lieberman from the Democrat ticket means that the growing anti-Semitism of the left will now flourish and produce a bumper crop of hatred. 

For a time, Lieberman was a worthwhile ally, but that moment has passed.  Now he is merely a typical disloyal Joo who must be punished.

Things are going to get a lot uglier.

Strange days in Havana

Normally, the news that Fidel Castro may have gone the way of the dodo would be a top story, worthy of banner headlines and breathless updates.

However the current crisis in the Middle East (as opposed to all the other crises in the Middle East) has driven it to the back pages, which in a way is appropriate.

For five decades the Maximum Leader has lived large - far larger than Cuba's resources or importance justified.  Cuba was the Soviet Union's American foothold and the source for many of its mercenaries in the Third World.

This - and colossal economic mismanagement - has left Cuba decaying and broken, prostrate under Castro's increasingly feeble heel.

So now we learn that some sort of "peaceful succession" has been accomplished.  Succession for whom?  To what?

Why should there be fears for the succession if Fidel is only having his gall bladder removed?  Is the Army that eager to revolt?

Surely there is a tale of intrigue waiting to be told.  The dying days of a corrupt regime are but fleeting moments in time, but for those enduring them they seem to last forever.  And for those that lose, they do.

Lacking any special sources of information, the Posse is reduced to doing what we all are:  watching, waiting and (perhaps) praying that the long nightmare of the Revolution is finally over.

Primary Day

It being an election day of sorts, the Posse dutifully trudged to the polls to vote in a series of generally uncontested races.  Living as we do in a particularly blue enclave of a somewhat blue state, GOP primaries tend to be rather dull and pointless affairs.

The real action is on the other side, where a motley collection of activists, hacks and local nomenklatura vie with one another to see who can climb to the next rung of the public office-holding ladder.

This put the Posse in a bit of a quandry: should we cross the aisle and vote in the hopes of restoring some sanity, or instead vote in a largely decided statewide primary for US Senate?

Part of the problem is that we simply don't trust Democrats any more.  Given the choice between grainy Al Jazeera footage of dubious provenance accusing US troops of killing and raping babies and adamant denials at all levels of our military complete with exonorating evidence, a substantial portion of the Dems would go with Al Jazeera.

The consequences of this are plain to see:  Republicans are growing complacent, corrupt and flabby since they now hold a monopoly on believing in America and supporting its soldiers.

As noted before, this is a very ominious development.

Over the years, we have often been lectured by European who point out that their parliamentary system of proportional representaion is far more respectful of diverse viewpoints than the American "first past the post" system.  They also note that in the US we vote for candidates rather than parties (though there are partisans out there, to be sure).

In Europe, the leadership of the nation can change without public input.  All it takes is a majority and a resignation and poof!  New head of government, no vote required.

We believe the American system is superior because it shortcuts the maneuverings that strangled democracies during the 1930s and 1940s.  Very few of the totalitarian governments that rose to power in those days did so through an overt coup d'etat.  Instead, they used physical intimidation, political pressure and parliamentary maneuvers to first join the coalition government and then to suppress all the other members of it - and the opposition.

Voting for Democrats now carries the same moral hazard that voting for the wrong coalition bloc carried in those days: yes, the individual member may support Faith, Freedom and Family, but the leadership that would take over certainly does not.

This is why "moderate" Democrats may soon be on the endangered species list.  Even folks who might vote for a given candidate are terrified of the resulting leadership team.

The planning for defeat

The Posse does not share the pessimism voiced by so many others regarding Israel's ultimate success or failure in Lebanon.

One of the main criticisms seems to be the alleged failure of the Israeli leadership to have an immediately obvious plan.

Coming from observers who are normally astute military observers and who seem to have more than passing historical knowledge, this is highly irrational.

It is a recurring theme, though.  One that the anti-war left has drawn up against Bush and the wilting flowers of the pro-war movement have used as an excuse to turn against the Iraq venture.

But does it bear up?

The Posse can think of many situations where plans were executed with ruthless determination - only to result in near or total disaster.

France has a history of lousy planning, from the assault on Dien Bien Phu to the Dyle Plan to Plan XVII.

Indeed, many of the greatest military disasters have resulted from a stubborn refusal to abandon plans that clearly were not working.

The Arab armies in particular have demonstrated this time and again.

Which brings us to the great strength of the IDF:  Improvisation.

The greatest commanders in history have been masters of the moment, able to adapt their movements and plans to rapidly changing environments.  The IDF is without parallel in this respect: No other fighting force is able to so quickly adjust to enemy weaknesses and altered circumstances.

Thus we believe that the present situation is merely the prelude to the longer war spoken of by Israel's cabinet.

These are merely the opening moves.  The game has hardly begun.