As Captain Ed notes, Bob Dole's return from retirement isn't a good sign for Kerry. Here is a man who conspicuously avoided making the same charges Kerry did - and has far more credibility as a wounded veteran.
Dole's own mangled body and record of courage in combat is impeccable. Trying to smear the man many now consider a kindly and somewhat goofy grandfather figure as a vicious Republican shill is an exercise in futility.
The Posse thinks now is a good time to take stock of the recent few weeks and review the damage Kerry's campaign has sustained.
In short, they have been disastrous for Kerry. Any momentum he might have gained from his convention has collapsed and the initiative is squarely in the hands of his opponent.
Kerry's strongest point - his Vietnam service - has now become a controversial liability.
The Swifties have shown a masterful grasp of public relations strategy, perhaps not surprising for men who felt its effects first-hand 35 years ago. Their timing has been exquisite.
The first ad, questioning Kerry's medals struck some as weak and off-topic. After all, it was old news and hard for most people to decipher. It was easily played by the mainstream press as a "he said/he said" scenario where neither side could claim victory.
What those commentators failed to understand was that it was never about the medals: it was about getting the Swifties mainstream press attention. With a limited budget, they needed earned media. Their earlier attempts to garner attention had failed. This worked precisely because of the controversial nature of the charges.
Making matters worse, Kerry's response was lame and dilatory. He's refused to release all his military records, causing some supporters to wonder what is in them. He's been forced to retreat on Cambodia - something that may yet feature in a future ad.
Let us repeat that: the mainstream press' decision to ignore the Cambodia retreat seriously hurts Kerry.
Because it remains unreported, the Swifties can bring it out for a seperate advertisement and it will have to be covered as "breaking news."
Having garnered the media spotlight, the Swifties then produced a charge that no amount of shooting the messengers can refute: Kerry's own words about Vietnam veterans.
Many observers thought the Swifties had it backwards. They were wrong.
Had the Swifties started with Kerry's testimony, his campaign could have easily swatted this aside by saying "That was a long time ago, no one cares."
Following this rebuke with the medals allegation would only have looked desperate. "See," Kerry could have said, "now they're getting personal. They have nothing to say and are only seeking attention."
By doing it reverse order, Kerry has baited the trap himself. His constant "Let's talk about Vietnam. Let's compare my record to that of Bush" only makes things worse.
This is where Robert Musil has it wrong. Normally a perceptive commentator on politics, Musil has failed to grasp the subtlety of this attack.
Kerry cannot simply say: "I served in Vietnam, unlike George W. Bush" anymore, because the quality of that service is now open to dispute.
Furthermore, Bush can always counter by saying "Yes, but that was 35 years ago. I'm not running based on a few months of Air National Guard duty. Why are you running on four months in Vietnam. What have you done since you got back?"
Kerry will then be forced to address his Senate record, or turn the topic back to Vietnam. If he includes so much as one reference, it will be Bush who gets to say "Enough about Vietnam already. I thought you wanted to talk about something else."
More than anything else, this month has shown the staggering ineptitude of Kerry's campaign.
UPDATE: Useful chronology here.
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