Posse Incitatus

Getting Egypt wrong

Since I’m convinced that our administration is likely to make a total hash of whatever happens in Egypt, I offer the following scenarios of what may happen, and how the Obama administration will screw it up.

SCENARIO 1 - MUBARAK STAYS IN POWER:  This is not unlikely, given his decades of experience and long-term skill in managing crisis.  Under this scenario he manages to outfox the protesters, uses the Army to seemly be an honest broker while undercutting the opposition.  Token reforms ensue, a designated strong-man successor takes over in the fall, and the repression continues.

How Obama will screw this up:  By misjudging the political momentum and trying to make up for its earlier caution, the administration may cause the inadvertent collapse of the regime and essentially hand the keys of the largest Arab nation to a bunch of radicals.

What he should do:  Emphasize the danger of the Muslim Brotherhood and how revolution is not the way to bring about change.  Behind the scenes he should reassure other allied regimes that we will stand by them no matter what, but that we expect something in return for our support.  The downside of this plan is that we look bad, and we’re still stuck with dictators.  The upside is that we forestall revolution and don’t look feckless.

SCENARIO 2 – GRADUAL TRANSITION:  Under this scenario, Mubarak has decided to transition to democracy ala Pakistan and the Philippines and is merely seeking an orderly way to hand over power while preventing an Islamist takeover.

How Obama will screw this up:  By increasing demands for an immediate transition, which would create a power vacuum and lead to divisions both within the government and without.  In such an event, many of the regime’s hardest cases may throw in their lot with the Muslim Brotherhood, just as Saddam’s goons made common cause with the Al Qaeda in Iraq terrorists, despite being ostensibly secularist.  The end result is a tottering caretaker government that collapses into anarchy with the Muslim Brotherhood playing the Bolshevik/Khomeinist role.

What he should do:  Announce that the US accepts the offer of Mubarak to step down and will assist in the development of genuine democracy and fair and free elections.  To keep the Army on board, announce that all future aid will be subject to Egypt meeting these benchmarks.   If elections are not free, the US will embargo the regime and several all ties.  This has the advantage of relieving some of the pressure, and gives the pro-democracy groups a chance to organize.  It also gives the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to overplay their hand and be stepped on by the Army and the secularists.

SCENARIO 3 – SUDDEN COLLAPSE:  Within days, the Army could join the general uprising, Mubarak could flee the country and the nation could be plunged into anarchy.  With factions competing for power and legitimacy, the Muslim Brotherhood could step into the vacuum thanks to is organization and willingness to coopt former enemies in the Army and security agencies.  Indeed, they could make a powerful case that only under their leadership can Mubarak’s chief enforcers escape mob justice.

How Obama will screw this up:  By mouthing platitudes to democracy, expressing willingness to work with the Muslim Brotherhood and downplaying the ties of key actors to Islamic terrorism while at the same time urging restraint upon the Army if it acts to restore order and establish a strong man.

What he should do:  Call for the Army to restore order and refuse to recognize any government influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.  Use long-standing contacts with the Egyptian military to facilitate the creation of a “caretaker” government that will honor elections in the fall, and blame violence on militant Islamic extremists.  Yes, this is also unsavory but geopolitics are not for the faint of heart.

Of course there are other possibilities, but these three seem most likely to me.

Wherein the Posse discusses the music of Britney Spears & etc.

We don’t do much music criticism on this blog, which is kind of strange since I’m very much into music. Admittedly, my tastes are somewhat more exacting than most (just as I’m a notoriously picky movie-watcher), but having high standards shouldn’t be a disqualifier.

I don’t drive much (what with living close to work) but when I do, the radio comes on and I hop from station to station looking for something decent. During this process I came to hear “Womanizer” by Britney Spears.

Let there be no mistake, I don’t think Spears will ever go down as a great musical talent. She is, as the phrase goes, a “pop tart,” but for all that, she’s a good one.

That is to say, her tunes tend to have excellent production values. I recall an earlier song by her – “Toxic,” I think, that basically used a string/guitar riff right out of a 60s James Bond score by John Barry. Her vocals were essentially irrelevant. Indeed, I have no idea if the woman can sing. But for overproduced pop, it’s pretty good. Better than the Kelly Clarkson shriekfests that seem overpopulate the airwaves. Clarkson is Celine Dion with the accent.

Speaking of female vocalists, I’ll put a plug in for Jo Stafford, who passed away this summer in her 90s. I’ve got her Christmas/Winter album and it is outstanding. My grandparents had “Ski Trails,” on vinyl, and we listened to it every year on Christmas Day – usually late in the day as the guests were leaving and things were winding down.

“Ski Trails” wasn’t strictly a Christmas album, but rather a bunch of winter songs – a genre that has pretty much disappeared these days. “Baby It’s Cold Outside” is still heard from time to time, but “Moonlight in Vermont” and “By the Fireside” are much neglected. Indeed, some aspiring diva should cover booth of these – Nora Jones would do a good job – and sell a few million copies. I will warn our readers that “By the Fireside” pretty much requires a low-burning blaze, an armchair – and, if possible - a partner.

Blog becomes convention-free zone

I haven't watched the Dem convention and can't really bring myself to start.  Besides, it's what everyone else is blogging about.

So, as an alternative, I offer...Johnny Cash singing Trent Reznor.

Sithkitten has been on a big Nine Inch Nails kick of late, so she's the one who tracked this down. I'm old enough to remember when "Head Like a Hole" hit the scene and it was very popular in my crowd in high school, but I'd kind of lost track of Reznor in the years since. I guess he's doing well and judging from what my nephew says, has a new following amongst the young folks.

My thoughts on this are that Cash now owns this tune, just as Whitney Houston took "I will always love you" from Dolly Parton. Great stuff.

Death from above!

As a former bando with eight years’ marching experience, I can deeply respect the military musicians who remained at attention as a parachutist crashed own on the low brass section.

The great thing about this article is that it lists the damaged instruments before the human toll.

Two tubas were destroyed, said Mike Keating, assistant chief of the post's Fire Department. MacDonald said a trumpet was also damaged.

Harsh.  I know I speak for music-lovers everywhere when I say:  Couldn’t you have landed on the saxophones?

Band member Sgt. Rachel Boggs was knocked unconscious and had a fractured jaw, hospital spokeswoman Lisa Medrano said. Sgt. Andrew Spinazzolla suffered minor neck and head injuries and had a fractured ankle, Medrano said. Staff Sgt. Mark Lucero sustained what Medrano called a minor leg injury.

Damn.  The parachutist wasn’t hurt – apparently because he landed on these guys’ heads.

Anyhow, my sympathies – and admiration – to the Army musicians who got these rather unusual Line of Duty injuries. 

You Call This a Bounce?

Robert Musil has the goods on the non/negative Kerry "bounce."

The Posse isn't surprised by this news at all: Kerry has all the raw passion of a warmed-over corpse. His campaign seems to think the answer to every question is: "I served in Vietnam."

We will not be surprised if Bush opens a double-digit lead heading into October. Kerry has shot his bolt, he's thrown everything he has at this point and it hasn't worked.

As the election drags on, expect the looney Dems to start breaking from the Kerry campaign's program of discipline and go on the all-out irrational attack. The simmering hatred barely held in check last week will uncontrollably boil over as the prospects of a Bush re-election solidify.

At this point, the Kerry train wreck will only accelerate. Candidate Kerry will be forced to fight two fires at once: distancing himself from his rabid and insane supporters while trying to bring Bush down to his level.

Kerry won't manage to do either, but will continue to straddle and prevaricate, losing even more support.

The Bush landslide looks even more probable.