Posse Incitatus

Capturing the citadel

 

More than a year ago I predicted that the Wisconsin recall elections and Michigan’s proposed Constitutional amendment making the closed shop permanent were the Big Labor equivalents of Germany’s last-ditch Western Front offensive in 1918 (a.k.a. Big Labor's Kaiserschlacht).

Thought the speed with which the Michigan GOP has acted has astounded long-time political observers, it is in fact a tribute to the experienced legislative team first-term Gov. Rick Snyder has assembled here in the Great Lakes State.

Setting aside the merits of the policy, its tactical execution has been flawless. Would that the Republicans in Washington were so skilled.

Few press accounts have reflected the difficult position and limited options available to Big Labor. While “It’s not over” makes a good sound bite, in a practical sense, the debate is over. The law will take effect this spring, and there the Dems can do about it. Here is why:

1. Unlike the Emergency Financial Manager bill, which was defeated in a statewide referendum this fall, there is no recourse to a ballot initiative because it contains and appropriation. Under the Michigan Constitution, measures with an appropriation become referendum-proof. This tactic was successfully used to push through Public Act 381, which reformed Michigan’s concealed carry laws.

Before that law took effect, gun control opponents attempted a lawsuit to strip out the appropriation, but it failed. The balance on the state Supreme Court has not changed since then, and it is extremely unlikely to overturn its precedent.

2. Recalls won’t help. As I noted elsewhere, Michigan’s Constitution does permit a recall, but it is a yes/no vote on the incumbent. Should an incumbent be removed, a new election is then scheduled. This means that recalling Gov. Snyder, would put Lt. Gov. Brian Calley temporarily in charge, and he is even more anti-union than Snyder.

During the madness in Wisconsin, the Dems did manage to recall a Republican legislator – who was promptly replaced by another Republican.

It should also be noted that because the state House just stood for reelection, recalls against them are not viable. The Dems could attempt to recall the state Senate, but the GOP majority there is overwhelming (26-12).

3. A new ballot initiative is too expensive. This will take time and money, and the unions are unlikely to prevail. Again, the same thing happened in regarding concealed carry, which had less support than right-to-work. Once the law took effect, people got used to it and the polls shifted even more against it.

Right now, Big Labor is in big trouble. Over the last election cycle, they have thrown everything they had into the effort to permanently enshrine their status in Michigan. They are now short on cash and will have an increasingly difficult time getting more.

In addition, the public is simply worn out. Liberals may treat politics as a hobby, the voters are already tired of it. Even the media are picking up on it: Mlive.com actually offers morning news summaries that leave out all mention of right-to-work because so many of their readers are tired of hearing about it.

Once the law takes effect, it will be a done deal and that will be that. Unless the Dems can take over state government in 2014 (a daunting proposition without all that union cash), right-to-work is here to stay.

BONUS BAD PRESS:  Not much national coverage, but state media is noticing the thuggishness of the "mostly pleaceful protesters."  Helpful hint to Big Labor goons:  Be careful whose cart you knock over - it may be a local fixture beloved by the community.

The Michigan GOP counteroffensive

While the national Republican leadership beclowns itself with committee purges and fiscal cliff staring contests (all the while slavishly carrying Hollywood's water), the Michigan Republicans seem to understand that they are now engaged in a life-or-death struggle.

Proposition 2 - enshrining union rights in the state Constitution - would have dealt a crippling blow to Michigan's economy, global competitiveness, and also created a one-party state of perpetual Democratic rule.  Even if the GOP controlled elective offices, the contitutional language would have let unions effectively dictate actual policy.

The measure's decisive defeat at the polls in a heavily Democrat year has convinced the normally addled state GOP that now is the time to strike back.  Last night both chambers passed bills making Michigan a right-to-work state and Gov. Rick Snyder has said he will sign them next week (bills must wait a certain number days between introduction and final passage).\

Snyder is an interesting fellow.  A self-proclaimed nerd, he is in many ways what Mitt Romney is not: an effective operator who doesn't stick his feet in his mouth.  Both made their fortunes, but Snyder never lost the common touch.

Unlike much of the state GOP establishment, Snyder is also not stupid.  The last seasoned GOP operator Michigan had was the utterly ruthless John Engler, a terror to friends and foes alike.  Engler had about as much charisma as Jabba the Hutt, but was just as feared.  When, near the end of his third and final term in office, an opportunity presented itself for the GOP-controlled Legislature to override his veto, they did so with great enthusiasm - even making commemorative buttons to celebrate the occasion. 

The state archivists were at a loss to find a precedent for a party overruling its own governor (the previous override came 20 years before when liberal Republican Bill Miliken was overruled by a Democrat-controlled Legislature).

The union-dominated Democrats are in an uproar, but there seems little they can actually do.  The Michigan Constitution does allow popular referenda on bills signed into law and his fall the state law on emergency financial managers was overturned by popular vote.  However, bills with appropriations are exempt and the drafters thoughtfully included money for implementation in the right-to-work proposal.

The GOP used a similar tactic on concealed carry reform in 1999 and this kept it off the ballot where its future was not certain.

It is a given that if the bills is signed, Democrats will file a lawsuit trying to strip out that appropriation, but the state Supreme Court has a 4-3 GOP majority that will no doubt fall back on the precedent established over the afore-mentioned concealed carry law (which provoked a similar suit).

Astute readers will recall that I (incorrectly) predicted that Romney would carry Michigan in part based on Prop. 2, but Romney never stepped up to the challenge.  I believe that if he had emphasized his Michigan-ness and challenged the president on the issue, he would have done much better.

Like many businessmen-turned Republican politicians, Romney wanted to avoid controversy (see Libya, failure to address Obama policy failures in), and while Snyder started out the same way, he understands that some fights just can't be avoided.

Win or lose, the state GOP is showing far more appetite for battle than I thought they would.  Good for them.

Yes, I'm still here

It appears that my last post was on Nov. 11.  Wow.  That's quite a break.

I hadn't intended to be away from the blog for that long, but after a grueling work schedule for the last three months, I needed to lower my operational tempo.

That and the news is just too depressing.

I burned out on serious politics a couple of years ago, and my posts have increasingly focused on fun stuff - sports, movies and hobbies.  However, the absolute debacle that is the Big Ten football season seriously sapped my enthusiasm for sports blogging.

So I took some time off.  I stopped reading political news and even avoided the in-depth sports reports.  Instead, I spent more time with the family, playing games with the kids and tending to things around the house.

Funny thing:  I ended up happier.

I've said it before, but for much of the left, politics is their life - it is all they think about, all they do.  There is no line between the personal and the political because to them the personal is political.  The coffee you drink, the car you drive, the shows you watch - all of this is an expression of political preference to them. 

I marvel at how they can keep it up.  Maybe this is why they are always so miserable and screaming about the latest outrage.  I look at my liberal friends on facebook and they are always up in arms about something.  That's no way to live.

I intend to reenter the area, particularly given the developments on both the state level (Michigan's Legislature passed Right to Work last night) and the media's pathetic attempt to resurrect gun control as an issue.

And of course there is the ongoing drama of the Big Ten's self-humiliation.  I can't let that go without comment.

The reason I separated this post from those is that I felt our readers deserved to know where I went and also I thought it important to remind folks that there is more to life than the latest spin from the White House.

What I saw at the great debacle

Since the rest of the blogosphere is offering analysis of the recent election, I figured I may as well join in - particularly since I have not seen anyone else note these keen insights.

Here then are my three takeaways from Election Night 2012:

1.  Candidates matter.  Partisans get all worked up about policies, but the candidate is the single biggest component of an election.  The GOP has an odd habit of running duds.  I think we are now up to six Senate seats the GOP should have won but for an idiot being on the ballot.

It's not just the Senate, of course.  Michigan's former princess governor, Jennifer Granholm, had terrible approval numbers in 2006.  She was ripe for defeat.  Yet the GOP managed to find the most inept candidate they could in the person of Dick DeVos, a billionaire plutocrat who made his money in Amway and exported jobs to China.  Great choice, guys.

(Granholm's previous opponent was Dick Posthumus, leading to the joke that Granholm might have been beaten but the GOP kept nominating Dicks to run against her.)

2.  People are human.  That is to say, they make very human mistakes.  Abstractions like national debt, fiscal cliffs and pension liabilities simply do not have much hold in their imagination - and never have.

Throughout history, people have preferred to hear how they will get goodies today rather than putting them off for some unknown future date.  This isn't a "maker/taker" thing, it's a human thing.  Any candidate wanting to solve a non-immediate crisis has to be able to explain why it is in fact immediate.  It is very difficult to do.  Only a candidate with tons of other gifts can pull it off.

I highly recommend Winston Churchill's Second World War, particularly the first volume.  That war never needed to happen, and when it did, could have been over much sooner than it was, but for timidity and a desire to do as little as possible.

3.  The pendulum swings.  There are a lot of liberals who are convinced that they can lock in their gains and create the permanent majority that they crave, leading to perpetual one-party rule in a socialist utopia.  I have one word for them:  Canada.

Canada was totally owned by the Liberal party to a degree we in the U.S. cannot fathom.  And yet, a resurgent Conservative moment has taken control and is (slowly) reshaping the state.

Of course, Canada's Liberals also had the luxury of a properous southern neighbor and the post-war boom to support its policies.  We have neither.  Within a few months the bottom will drop out - sequester and fiscal cliff.  Obama has promised too much to too many and we are out of money.  Something will have to give.

In 2006, Granholm was reelected governor, promising that we would be "blown away" by her long-term plan for renewal. 

In 2010, the Michigan Republicans swept to total power, winning massive majorities in both chambers and controlling all other state elective offices.  The Dems hoped to retake the state House this week, but fell short.

Their last-ditch union power grabs also collapsed.

The point is that this too shall pass.

FOR THE RECORD:  I think the hurricane and Chris Christie's de facto endorsement swung the election away from my prediction.  This was a very, very close thing and Romney's post-debate momentum got stalled by a low-pressure system off the Jersey coast.  Christie had been looked at as a rising star, but he's dead to me.  Typical Jersey pol, looking out for number one.

At the precise moment when Obama's leadership and competence are in question, Christie runs out and holds his hand, telling the world he's doing great in a crisis.

Makes me want to send him a dead fish wrapped in a Springsteen album.

Spartans shock Badgers, Nebraska surprises no one

Yesterday I was able to snatch a few hours of free time from the Busiest Fall Fall Ever and take in some college football.

(I must admit that after the high hopes of this August, the subsequent failure of the Spartan offense made the lack of football time easier to bear.)

After last week's wrenching loss the Skunk Bears, it seemed to me that Michigan State was reverting to type - not necessarily the Same Old Spartans of the John L. Buffoon era, but rather the scrappy underdogs who delight in pulling upsets.

There is a movement to fire the offensive coordinator, and while I'm generally opposed to spur of the moment decisions, the case can be made that something has to be done to ignite the Spartan offense.  This team would be 8-1 with any kind of offense - and it arguably could have beaten Notre Dame if the defense ever got to rest.

Still, a bowl game would be nice, and maybe next year the Spartans will be what we thought they would be this year.

SKUNK BEARS GET SHUCKED BY HUSKERS: While the total collapse of Wolverine football under RichRod was amusing to watch, serious observers of the sport knew that the Skunk Bear faithful would never allow the Winningest Program Evah to achieve the epic fail of their basketball team.

Still, last year's mark was a fluke of scheduling, as everyone outside of Ann Arbor knew.

Despite the studly machismo of Brady Hoke's ripped abs, the Skunk Bears are a one-dimensional team.  Nebraska took out that dimension and if the results were not pretty, they were predictable.

THE OIRISH ARE WHAT???  The white-knuckled decision not to can Brian Kelly in the wake of several lapses of judgement seemd vindicated as Notre Dame is now 8-0 for the first time since Lou Holtz was lucid and intelligible.  Normally, this wouldn't mean much since they have yet to place USC, but the Trojans suddenly aren't looking so hot.  (I think a bigger victory for Arizona was Toledo.)

At any rate, the season is now deeply interesting. 

Romney in control

A rare weekend double-post allows me to update my August prediction.

While I was wrong regarding the negative bounce (which was basically because of Bill Clinton), the underlying dynamic remains the same.

With two weeks remaining, this is Romney's election to lose.  I have said this many times privately but it bears repeating here:  Romney will carry Michigan.

The polls show a narrow race and statewide polls are notoriously inaccurate.  Michigan pollsters tend to be worse than most, consistently underestimating GOP support.  Both of Granholm's victories were far closer than the polling indicated and Jim Blanchard's narrow loss to John Engler in 1990 was surprising in part because he had a lead in statewide polling.

Polling is an increasingly imperfect and unreliable tool to gain information.  In many ways, polling outfits are like intelligence officers trying to gain an accurate picture of the battlefield.  At this point, polling is as reliable as aerial photography - it provides some insights, but it easily defeated.

Not that people have the same interest as military officers in deception, but they are interested in preserving their own privacy and opinions.  It is simply harder to pin them down.

Thus in addition to polling, one must draw upon other evidence - numbers of volunteers, yard signs, general enthusiasm and so forth.  Living as I do in a predominantly Democrat area, I am surprised at the lack of Obama signs and the relative proliferation of Romney ones.  I have even seen Romney seens in the "student ghetto".  Either the area is suddenly trending conservative, or people are tired of four years of failure.

At this point, the Obama campaign has nothing left to offer.  Their latest lines of attack - binders and "Romnesia" are nothing more than playground taunts.  The debates have shown Mitt Romney to be a serious man with serious plans.  He has been dignified and sincere - not at all like the caricature people have been shown.

Despite all the noise about "ladyparts" and attempts to turn the campaign into a referendum on abortion, Romney has made it clear that these issues don't interest him - his focus is the economy.  In this, he is on the same page with voters.  Social issues can wait until we have some money in our pockets again.

Against this background, the Libya debacle only makes Obama look even  more feeble.  The death of an amabassador is not a "bump in the road" or a "not optimal" development.  The sabre-rattling and transparent "wag the dog" scenario that only heightens the sense of weakness and unseriousness. 

Next week, Romney can rightly ask:  Why did you lie to the American public for so long?  Why can't your administration figure this out?  You've been president for four years - how long does it take you to organize things?

I also hope that Romney reminds the public that the entire situation in North Africa belongs to Obama.  It was he who decided to attack Libya without Congressional authorization and created a swathe of instability that has led to anarchy in Benghazi and revolution in Mali.  This needs to be brought up - Obama's unconstitutional Libya intervention was a disaster.  It was a "war of choice" just as much as Iraq but with a far worse outcome.

Spartans host Buckeyes, Blogger Recovers from Hangover

I've been busy for the past couple of weeks on various assignments and this has cut into my time available to blog.

Of course, given the intense pain of both the Notre Dame loss and the far-from-inspiring victory over the Fighting EMUs, much of what I would have posted was unfit for public consumption anyway.

Today seems to be a hinge point of the season.  Obviously the conference opener is critical, but given the frustrations of the past month, a slow start here could doom MSU to second-tier status for the rest of the season.

Given the stakes, the Posse offers this advice to MSU:

Catch.  The.  Ball.

It really is that simple.  While we often speak of cascade failures, there are also cascade successes, where the completion of one task opens up new avenues for advancement, culiminating in overall victory.

The Spartans need some cascade successes - a completion that enables a first down, which enables a run, which inables another completion and finally a touchdown.  This is the key to success, both in football and elsewhere.

IS NOTRE DAME FOR REAL?:  It's difficult for me to say anything good about the Fighting Irish, and I won't start now.  MSU's loss was basically self-inflicted:  We almost duplicated the result against Eastern Michigan.

The weakness of the Skunk Bears has been an ongoing thing and I'm tempted to ascribe it more to everyone in the NCAA now being aware of the fact that the sum total of the Wolverine offense is Denard Robinson, a quarterback with no arm.  Box him in, and you win.  I fully expect more teams to do this over the course of the season.

POLITICAL NOTE:  While I am loathe to mix politics and football in one post, I will simply note that nothing I wrote two weeks ago is out of date. 

Spartans obliterate Mt. Pleasant, Air Force strafes Ann Arbor

In more pleasant news...

The mushroom cloud created by MSU’s impact on the Chippewas was not quite visible in East Lansing, but I’m told it could be seen from as far away as Alma, and a stiff breeze carried it into Midland.

I was a student during the tail-end of the Perles era, when George managed to lose to CMU twice (and post a near-record 3-8 season in the process), but I bear no ill will to the Chips.  They seem like decent folks and there is a common affinity between Spartan fans and the other “directional” universities – they all despite U-M’s arrogance.

The big news was that quarterback Andrew Maxwell continues to develop and refine his skills, demonstrating some of the potential Kirk Cousins and other observers have been claiming he posses.

This weekend we will see how he stacks up against the Fighting Irish.  I watched a little of the Notre Dame-Purdue game and neither team looked particularly sharp.  Notre Dame has had our number for the last few years, but MSU has a good chance of taking home the megaphone.

IT DIDN’T SNOW IN ANN ARBOR, BUT THERE WERE CONTRAILS:  Congratulations to the Air Force Academy for one of the most exciting and dedicated examples of college football in a long time.  I was sure the cadets would pull it out, but the Skunk Bears were just too much for them.

This was not at all surprising – the Zoomies were outweighed along the line about by about 50 pounds per player:  Their lead running back is only 5’7” and 170 pounds!

And yet these scrappy airmen drove up and down the field, racking up 400 yards of total offense.  Spare me your hackneyed clichés about how hard it is to stop the option – if the option was that great, everyone would be doing it.  RichRod would have run it instead of that oddball spread thing.

No, the key takeaway is that the Wolverines’ defense is as bad as we thought, perhaps worse.  Other than running the quarterback, they have no rushing attack.  It is all Denard, all the time.  Take him out of the equation, and there’s no offense left.

BADGER DOWN!  BADGER DOWN!  What the heck happened to Wisconsin?  I didn’t even know there was an Oregon State until it snuffed out their vaunted running game and forced Bret Bielema to rely on his latest mercenary quarterback.  At least some of our other teams held up…WHAT THE HECK?!

Nebraska lost to UCLA, Iowa lost to Iowa State, this thing is looking ugly.  It appears the strength of our conference this season will be Northwestern, Minnesota and…Indiana.

Wait, Ohio State won.  Okay, there is some hope.

Penn State lost, though…and I’m good with that.  I never bought into the creepy hero worship surrounding Joe Paterno and I wouldn’t mind if they racked up four more 0-12 seasons.

The Black Flag returns

Long-time readers of this blog know that I predicted the 9/11 attacks long before they happened.  I saw the growth of radical Islam and how the U.S. government simply ignored the repeated provocations.  Retaliation was “beneath us,” or so the refrain went.  We could afford to shrug off embassy bombings in Africa and attacks on our warships.

So the attacks escalated until we could not ignore them any more.

For a few months, it looked like things had changed – and I believed our nation had awoken to the existential threat posed by radical Islam – an ideology of conquest rather than a faith.

Today we have the definitive proof that I was wrong.

Today our embassy in Egypt was attacked, the American flag torn down and the Black Flag waved over its compound.

The Black Flag has a lot of history.  It was raised more than a century ago in the Sudan during the Mahdist rebellion.  Winston Churchill’s excellent account of the campaign is still available and an invaluable source of information on the roots of the modern jihadi.

This history is well known to the local inhabitants:  How in 1884 an obscure preacher incited the people of the Sudan to holy war against the British-backed Egyptian garrison.  Let by the Mahdi, the hordes of fanatics swept across the country, capturing everything south of roughly the modern frontier save for the capital, Khartoum.  It was here that the legendary General Charles “Chinese” Gordon held out for over a year against impossible odds, waiting in vain for relief.  The city fell and Gordon was beheaded two days before the relief force arrived.  It then withdrew back to Egypt.

Nearly a decade later, the British resolved to restore their honor – and forestall possible French influence along the Nile - by launching a massive punitive expedition under General Sir Herbert Kitchener (he of the “I Want You” poster fame) that culminated in the archetypal clash of civilizations:  The Battle of Omdurman.

It was here in 1898 that the “whirling dervishes” of the Mahdist army, swords flashing and banners streaming, were cut down in droves by modern artillery and machineguns. 

What a difference a century makes.  Then, the Black Flag was cut down by Maxim guns and quick-firing 6-pounders.  Now, we bow to it.

Think I exaggerate?  Here is the official U.S. response to the violation of American sovereign territory:

 The Embassy of the United States in Cairo condemns the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims – as we condemn efforts to offend believers of all religions. Today, the 11th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, Americans are honoring our patriots and those who serve our nation as the fitting response to the enemies of democracy. Respect for religious beliefs is a cornerstone of American democracy. We firmly reject the actions by those who abuse the universal right of free speech to hurt the religious beliefs of others

Yeah!  Take that!

Oh wait, another apology.

I was born for a different age - an age when honor meant something, and when America stood for something other than buying off victims.

The proper response to this infringement of sovreign territory is to recall the ambassador and establish a blockade.  If the insults persist, naval and aerial bombardment of key facilities until the host nation apologizes to us.

This is the way things used to be.  It will be interesting to see if Romney can show more backbone.  Not that it should be difficult...

BONUS QUESTION:  Does this mean the administration will start censoring Catholic critics, or do we have to kill some people first to get their attention?

 

Skunk Bears buy into the hype - and pay for it

Well, the U-M/Alabama game went about the way I expected it to go.  The Crimson Tide not only demolished the Wolverines, it toyed with them, taunting them by using odd-sets and inventive play calling - effectively turning the second half into a live practice scrimmage.

Don't believe me?  Compare the urgency of Alabama's late scores - from half-hearted pass-focused field goal drives to the full-bore rushing attack on the final touchdown.  I've seen mice put up better fights against tomcats (though the result was the same).

The few Skunk Bear fans who read this blog, may counter that MSU would likely fare no better two which I have two responses:

1.  We aren't ranked as a top 10 team,
2.  So what?

The U-M hype machine was something to see last week - breathless day-to-day accounts of who would play, how the program would look, why Denard Robinson is some sort of god, and of course a ton of blather about the storied history of the program.

Actually, Michigan is a top-ten team - in terms of being overrated.  No, that's not trash talk, it's math.

That chart was from last year, but no fear - Michigan's brilliant eye-catching performance will probably move them up in that poll, at least.

Speaking of hype, how do you like these amazing predictions?

U-M by 3?  On what planet?

One thing worth mentioning for those who did not see the game, both of Denard Robinson's injuries were self-inflicted.  The first was when he decided to tackle an Alabama player (who just picked him off) by throwing his passing-side shoulder into him.  Yep, that hurt.

His second injury came when he attempted to stretch it out for a first down and landed funny on the ground.

Some commentators are wondering why Coach Brady Hoke didn't "unleash" Robinson, letting him use his incredible speed (about which Robinson shows the modesty we have come to expect from Wolverine Players).

The answer is simple:  he wanted to use him against Air Force next week.  As it was, Robinson got dinged up.  Giving him more touches would have resulted in him leaving on a stretcher. 

It was fascinating to watch the tone of the coverage shift from "Wow, what a matchup between giants" to "Boy U-M has a long way to go."

Er, yes.  And anyone following the sport could have told you that last year's season was not an accurate indicator of where Michigan stands.  Just to review:  The Skunk Bears played eight home games and their signature road victory came against Northwestern.  In fact, they didn't leave the Big House until mid-October.

Going forward, the question will be:  How badly hurt is this squad?  Robinson is already a bad passer, so will his injury make him worse?  Air Force is traditionally the best of the service academies, so a victory against them is not a foregone conclusion.  It should be interesting to see what the cadets can do.

RICHROD SIGHTING:  As a bonus to the prime-time beat-down, I tuned in to watch RichRod handily barely defeat Toledo in his first game as Arizona's coach.  It was a sloppy, ugly affair.  Each time Arizona made a critical error, RichRod's face contorted, and you knew he was thinking "not again!"  Well, not this time.