Posse Incitatus

Sixteen years later

I forgot today was September 11th.

I got up, went through my usual morning routine and then the import of the day hit me.

I found myself not wanting to remember the clear sky, the unreal atmosphere.  I wanted to forget it all.

It's an old cliche to say today was the day everything changed.  The new cliche is that today was the day nothing changed.

Both are false.

The West has accustomed itself to terrorist attacks quite well.  They're the background noise between social justice campaigns to normalize self-castration and punish observant Christians.

In fact, progressives have decided to create their own militant wing to terrorize their political enemies.  I guess they, too are tired of outsourcing.

As to what the next year holds, who knows?  A shooting war with Korea would dwarf all other matters.

All of which is why today's significance slipped my mind.

The myth of Chinese strategic genius

Last week I took a brief look at the likelihood of open warfare returning to the Korean peninsula and referenced China's unearned reputation for grand strategy.  I think the topic bears further, more detailed examination.

To begin with, we must understand that for almost its entire history, China has been almost entirely uninterested in the world around it.  China's focus has been almost entirely internal.  Sun Tzu's masterful treatise on war dates from the time before China was unified and is essentially a guide for how to win what would be a civil war today.

When threatened by an external power, China has either tried to fence it off (the Great Wall) or simply absorb the invasion. 

This is how China handled both the Mongols and the Manchurians.  The former never managed to conquer the entire Chinese state while the latter did - and ran it into the ground.  In both cases, these what started as foreign policy eventually became a domestic issue.  The end of the Manchu (or Qing) dynasty was the story of the last century - the revolution of 1911, the era of warlords, the rise of the Kuomintang and the emergence of Chairman Mao and his communists.

At no point in the last two centuries can one point to deft Chinese diplomacy averting conflict or achieving strategic goals.  In fact, China's diplomatic efforts have been consistently short-sighed and often counterproductive.

That's why when I read about how China's goals are served by Lil' Kim's nuclear tantrum, I have wonder what these analysts are smoking. 

Let us assume that China's goal is to drive the US from the western Pacific.  What would be the easiest way to do that?

The obvious answer is to remove military tension from Korea.  The US has been trying to reduce its overseas military commitments for thirty years.  A non-nuclear and non-militant North Korea would give the US the perfect excuse to remove the last of its forces.

A quiescent Korea would also remove the incentive of Japan to expand its own defenses.

Thus if China is actually aiding and abetting Kim's drive to build ICBMs, it is achieving the exact opposite of its stated goal.

South Korea has been undergoing a steady and wide-ranging modernization of its military.  It now possesses a missile defense system which undermines China's own nuclear deterrent.

More alarming still from the Chinese perspective, Japan is now throwing aside its post-World War II policy of pacifism and undertaking a massive rearmament program.  It's latest "destroyer" is in fact a fleet aircraft carrier with formidable power projection capabilities.  Japan is even contemplating something unthinkable not the long ago:  Building its own nuclear arsenal.

This is an unmitigated disaster for Chinese strategic ambitions.  Even if North Korea's nuclear blackmail forces a South Korean capitulation, the predicted result would be a far more dangerous Japan.

We must recall that Japan is far more strategically secure than South Korea.  Seoul is literally under Kim's guns; Japan is much farther removed.  To convincingly menace Japan with conventional forces would require a naval investment that would take a decade or more to pay off.  To do so using nuclear weapons will only convince Japan to reply in kind.  Given Japan's first-rate tech and science community, nuclear weapons could be developed in short order - assuming the US didn't simply hand over the blueprints.

All of this is painfully obvious, so why is China tolerating this behavior?

The answer isn't that they are playing "go" or three-dimensional chess, it is that China's foreign policy is one of malign neglect driven primarily by internal politics.

Consider the ultimate instrument of Chinese national power, the People's Liberation Army.  This outfit is still organized on Stalinist lines and despite propaganda, it is almost entirely focused on internal security.  Its generals rise and fall based on political patronage, not ability.

The PLA is also a key economic player, with its own enterprises.  China's political and economic systems are remarkably corrupt and this extends into the military.

Part of the problem is that China possesses no great martial tradition.  Historically soldiers have been considered low-status individuals, essentially bandits with uniforms.  Military careers carry none of the prestige that they do in Western countries.  Japan and India both had a strong historic (and respected) soldierly class and they have used this to build a modern military culture of efficiency.   That simply doesn't exist in China.

This article - which is ostensibly about China's leader strengthening his internal position - contains a key passage explaining some of the problems the PLA faces:

The Political Work Department used to be headed by Xu Caihou, who along with a fellow former vice-chairman of the military commission, Guo Boxiong, was accused of taking bribes in exchange for promotions. Guo was jailed for life last year, while Xu died of cancer in 2015 before he could face trial.[Emphasis added.]

This is a level of corruption far beyond anything seen even in the most decadent Western military establishments.   Part of the reason for this is that the generals are also politicians, filling key seats in the Communist Party hierarchy.

(Cynics might suggest the charges are trumped-up, but even fake charges need to be plausible.  These particular leaders might not have sold promotions, but it clearly is a problem.)

Xi Jinping is a lot more worried about a coup sponsored by his enemies than he is about a foreign invasion, and he and those around him apportion their effort accordingly.

Thus China's lack of sensible policy is the result of a distracted and inexperienced foreign policy establishment fumbling its way forward while constantly watching their backs.  Anyone expecting Chinese diplomacy to somehow pull off a strategic miracle in Korea is expecting something that has never happened before and is unlikely to happen now.

The end of the Korean truce

It is increasingly likely that either Kim Jong Un will be deposed or military action will have to be taken against his Hermit Kingdom.

It is worth reminding people that the Korean War never ended; it has simply been in a state of suspended animation since 1953.  There have been countless infractions and provocations from the North, but South Korea and the United States have tolerated them as the price to maintain peace.

The fear was always that Seoul and its environs would be subjected to a massive conventional bombardment if hostilities recommenced.  For a quarter-century, the US accepted this and did nothing while the North Korean nuclear enterprise moved forward.

As I said before, there are now no good options.  South Korea faces a stark choice:  Submit to the North's yoke or accept the risks inherent in military action. 

There some in the strategy business who insist Kim can be contained.  They point to the Cold War standoff with the Soviet Union as proof.

What they forget is how dangerous things were and how close we came to a nuclear conflagration.  It is ironic that the same people urging an American "nuclear freeze" are now totally fine with a third-generation cult of personality dictator having the most dangerous weapons in the world.

The South Koreans have to know that if Kim obtains a strategic-range nuclear weapon, the West will desert them.   The American people in their current state are unlikely to risk nuclear war over South Korea.  Indeed, the "containment crowd" would probably urge we cut them loose at the first serious threat.

Trump's people know this as well.  The best time to have taken out North Korea's nuclear capability was 25 years ago, when China was far weaker and Russia was a basket case.   That moment passed, though not without Bill Clinton promising that today's dilemma would never come.

The exact method of the strike is not clear, but China is slowly beginning to understand that Trump is no mere saber-rattler.  Some folks have asked why we haven't already struck, but such things take time and meticulous planning.  Plus there is South Korea to consider.

Given that their new defense minister has openly discussed having American tactical nuclear weapons redeployed to his nation, their willingness to risk war is clearly on the rise.

The key of course is China.  One thing I've noticed over the years is this strange and utterly misplaced confidence that China's leadership knows what it is doing and is moving as part of a long and careful plan.

The Chinese, we are told, are a wise people with a long historic memory.  The land of Sun Tzu surely are wise beyond Western comprehension.

Of course, if this were true, China would have colonized Europe rather than the other way around.  Indeed, China's foreign policy has historically been entirely focused on internal politics. 

The skillset needed to be a successful Chinese strategist is entirely focused on defeating internal opponents.  China is very new to great power politics and there is no reason to suppose that their corrupt, kleptocratic elites are any more insightful or talented than ours.

History moves in cycles.  Each hundred years or so, the international order collapses in a wave of war and unrest.  We're running overdue on the next reset.

If we're lucky, it will be a modest, and well-managed affair, with only minimal carnage.

I wouldn't bet it, though.