The Posse has been distracted for the last few weeks with business trips and chores around the ranch, and the blog has been languishing. For this we apologize, but long-term readers have no doubt come to expect such lapses over the summer.
While most of Washington obsesses about the latest manufactured drama (the debt limit) the rest of the world continues on its merry way.
The war in Libya is effectively at a standstill. While the optimists at Strategy Page continue to talk up the many strategic advantages held by NATO and its rebel allies, the fact remains that Gaddafi holds a superior position. Yes, he is surrounded, isolated and at bay, but the effort required to pry him out of his stronghold is beyond the means of his enemies. The French – who were one of the big supporters of this operation – are now working on a deal to buy him off. This is not what one would expect if NATO’s situation were as strong as some believe it to be.
In fact, as this blog noted more than two weeks ago, NATO’s ability to fight is rapidly being eroded. The military prowess is there, but the political will – and therefore the financial/logistical support – is not. Just as the UK is watching its helicopter fleet wear out years ahead of schedule over Afghanistan, many NATO allies are seeing their pared-down air forces exhaust themselves at a sortie rate far beyond anything they are used to, or are willing to pay for.
NATO’s trump card is of course the US military, which could oust Gaddafi within a few days. Yet the president cannot escalate matters without further damaging his own credibility. Unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama does not tend to dig in when matters go against him. He may become petulant and peevish, but he almost always backs down. Even his signature accomplishments – the stimulus and Obamacare – owe far more to Nancy Pelosi’s arm twisting than any White House pressure.
So it is that US involvement is downplayed as much as possible so as to provide credence to the bizarre and logic-twisting contention that the War Powers Act doesn’t apply because we aren’t technically doing anything warlike in Libya.
Given that the last thing the president wants is to explain the three-month stalemate, the ongoing soap opera over the debt limit makes perfect sense.
Meanwhile, all Gaddafi has to do is hang on.
While a flamboyant dresser and ideological lunatic, Gaddafi does possess a high degree of cunning, which is how he has survived so long. He can read opponents quite well, and the irresolution of the West is helping to sustain his own hopes that he may somehow ride out the storm around him.
Even assuming that Gaddafi can be toppled, what comes next? Libya is a deeply fragmented country whose component parts – the east, west and south – historically have not gotten along very well. The Duck of Death may well decide to partake of a negotiated exile and leave the messy cleanup of his reign to someone else. Is the US prepared to shoulder that burden? Of course not.
Oh well, at least the economy’s booming and the job market is surging.
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