The tide of events rolls on

The hated Instapundit has a roundup of reactions to the continuing riots in France.  Of particular interest is Clive Davis, who disputes the notion that the riots have any real religious component.

To Davis the riots are about alienation, economic stagnation and discrimination.

The Posse agrees that these may have been what initially caused the violence, but history shows us that events can gain their own momentum, going well beyond what was intended.

The American Revolution started as a tax protest.  The Civil War was a dispute over states' rights and the role of the federal government.  World War I began because of a single radical with a gun. 

In each case, the resulting violence transformed the conflict, radicalizing the participants until by the final objectives were unthinkable when the conflict began.

The alarming surge of violence in France and Western Europe indicates that even if the riots die down, it will only be because the perpetrators are reorganizing and preparing for the next stage.

Davis insists that no real demands or leadership have emerged.  This is true, but that vacuum will not remain indefinately.  Even now, within the cities ambitious men are moving to take control of the power the gangs have unleashed.

The criminal element - who unquestionably had a major role in the violence to date - will be subsumed by radical Islam.

The Posse is reminded of the Russian Revolution, an event that had strong backing from the "progressives" of the day.  The initial government was based upon liberal democratic principles and to judge by their complaints, Russia might have survived as a constitutional monarchy.

But the spring revolution had started something that few comprehended.  In the resulting disorder, the unthinkable became the probable.  And so it was that a short time later, the most conservative of European nations became the most radical.

France is experiencing a similar breakdown of social cohesion.  Once this happens - in almost any environment - the old rules go out the window.  The center collapses and it is up to the radical fringe to dictate the new terms.

The center may hold for a while yet in France.  But that is only because the fringe is not yet ready.

UPDATE:  Welcome Instapundit readers!  Scroll down to find additional thoughts on the riots.

Our point is that there is a dynamic at work now, one that is partly beyond the reach of the participants.

Once the battle is joined, events tend to take a shape of their own.  The same strange path that led from an ex-prime minister's assassination in Beirut to the expulsion of Syria is at work here as well.

Chirac and company are riding on the wings of a far greater storm whose consequences even the Posse cannot foresee.

FURTHER UPDATE:  In response to the question of why we hate the Instapundit, the answer is here.

Obviously he has linked to us, so he's not as hated as before.  Still, the whole puppy blender thing is just plain wrong.

Comments

[Mark Maps]

Yes. And it was Europe that gave us the most deadly century in history, the gulags, the camps, the starvation of millions in the name of the Future. France as we know it will collapse as Chirac & company dither and fret about their page in the history books of the future. Then the Europeans will show their fangs and the "outsiders" will be dealt with in a bloody and irrational way, death, deportation and war. It was France, after all, who brought the world "The Terror" in the late 1700's.

Second point: the Turks can now kiss their EU aspirations goodbye.

[Philip Cassini]

From extreme tolerance to extreme intolerance in one short step. Just like in Holland, the ossified edifice of multiculturalism and relativism will crumble in a fortnight.

Yes, at this rate Turkey will never enter into the EU, at least not if the European electorate has any say in the matter.

[Philip Cassini]

From extreme tolerance to extreme intolerance in one short step. Just like in Holland, the ossified edifice of multiculturalism and relativism will crumble in a fortnight.

Yes, at this rate Turkey will never enter into the EU, at least not if the European electorate has any say in the matter.

[Omri]

The EU's act is falling apart. The Turks' act is continuing to come together. By the time the EU is ready to offer membership to Turkey, the Turks will be ready to turn their noses up at it.

[peggy]

off topic question.

Why do ya hate instapundit? or were you not serious?

Who hates Instapundit, benevolent provider of instalanches for the up and coming blogger? ;-)

I see you got one. I came riding in on it.

[peggy]

BTW, I couldnt agree more with your point. I think its just a matter of time before the islamists take advantage of their muslim identity with the muslim rioters. They will they will present themselves as the answer to everything and will offer readymade leadership and organization. Its a matter of when.

The nativist and nationalist sentiment will rise in response very likely also becoming violent in response. Its going to be a big ugly drawn out mess over there for quite sometime if the French dont do something effective right away. Yes, I can see this being the end of France as we know it. I would say that it couldnt happen to a worse government but I will refrain out of decency. I hope we are wrong about all this for the sake of the good and the decent among the inhabitants of France and for all of Europe. I really want to be wrong. I take no happiness in seeing these people reap the whirlwind of their own making. The good folks over there have my sympathy for the crap governments they have been saddled with. I feel sorry for them realizing it maybe too late. I can only imagine how bad that would suck if it was me in their place.

[countertop]

Peggy,

Check this link out:

http://gevkaffeegal.typepad.com/the_alliance/2003/09/the_blog_war_an.html

It should explain everything.

[Sithkitten]

Yep, the Posse are members of the Alliance.