Crescent of fire

The situation in France continues to deteriorate.  The hated Instapundit has many links to follow the latest developments.

Scanning through them, this passage from the Amir Taheri in New York Post stuck out:

A reporter who spent last weekend in Clichy and its neighboring towns of Bondy, Aulnay-sous-Bois and Bobigny heard a single overarching message: The French authorities should keep out.

"All we demand is to be left alone," said Mouloud Dahmani, one of the local "emirs" engaged in negotiations to persuade the French to withdraw the police and allow a committee of sheiks, mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood, to negotiate an end to the hostilities. [emphasis added]

This dovetails with what the Posse wrote yesterday: that the riots were more than just hooliganism and violent youth - they are about building international recognition for the nation-within-a-nation's leadership.

As the riots spread, the leaders of the individual communities are organizing themselves into a heirarchy and laying the groundwork for a more organized an powerful movement.

France has perhaps 6 million Muslims, and they are disproportionately young compared with the rest of the population.  This gives a pool of some 600,000 to 1 million potential soldiers already within a stone's throw of the capital.

France has 250,000 active duty military members.  With the end of conscription, the possibility of calling up large numbers of reservists is greatly diminished.

This is not to say that France will lose a straight-up conflict, merely to indicate that her options are severely constrained.

Meanwhile, the Posse has an updated map with as many Paris suburbs that we can find identified marked.

Paris, in the center, is slowly being surrounded by areas of unrest.

Perhaps more troubling is the news that the riots are now extending beyond the environs of Paris.

The Posse has prepared another map with these areas marked as well.

Marseilles, Rouen and Dijon have all been affected.

What amazes the Posse is that despite this almost unprecedented spiral of violence, the international press remains remarkably uninterested.  We had to dive deep into Yahoo news to find any updates. 

Here is a list of their top stories as we write:

• Thousands protest Bush in Argentina
• China, Vietnam report more bird flu outbreaks
• Insurgents kill 11 Iraqi security forces
• U.S. payrolls expand, jobless rate dips
• Senate backs oil drilling in Alaskan refuge
• Turnaround dreams take root in Detroit
• Sony issues fix for hidden rootkits on CDs
• Juanes, Sanz dominate Latin Grammys

Fascinating stories all, but one can't wonder if France's pride is humbled to know that the Latin Grammy awards and protests in Argentina are considered more noteworthy than the fact that their nation is teetering on the brink of anarchy.

UPDATE:  The indispensable Belmont Club adds more information in support of our thesis:

Mr. de Villepin's major political rival, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy said yesterday that the riots in several Paris suburbs over the previous night were "not spontaneous" but rather "well organized," Agence France-Presse reported.

"What we saw in the department of Seine-Saint-Denis overnight was not spontaneous, it was perfectly organized. We are looking into by whom and how," Mr. Sarkozy told French news channel I-Tele.

Wretchard speculates that this may be paranoia on Sarkozy's part; a need to find a conspiracy to explain events that have clearly moved beyond his control.

The Posse isn't so sure.  After the events of the past five years, conspiracies within the Muslim community are no longer impossible to believe.

Indeed, if we have learned anything, it is that the West consistently ignores the links that draw disparate groups from Iran, Arabia, East Africa, the Caucasus and Afghanistan together.

There need be no "Central Committee" or dark mastermind in the mold of S.P.E.C.T.R.E. to coordinate these actions, merely a series of casual alliances, informal agreements, clandestine networks and shared goals.

Within France and Western Europe, many Muslim leaders are no doubt inspired by the career of Yasser Arafat, a stateless rebel who was reborn as a would-be national leader lauded and praised by the European elites.

What may have started as random acts of the usual violence associated with the cites could well be turning into a test of wills.  As France's leadership thrashes about in weakness and confusion, ambitous leaders are taking a chance to assert their own power.

The riots may well subside after negotiation and renewed accomodation, but that may only be a pause for the insurgents to complete their transition from criminal mobs and rowdy youths into a cohesive and organized military movement.

Comments

[Mr. Invidious]

CNN has it on the front page of their website. I had to dig through the BBC's site yesterday to find any mention of it.