Events in Lebanon and Egypt - indeed around the Middle East - remind the Posse of our earlier post on North Korea.
No, we don't see any connection or similarities other than the obvious: That once regimes reach the "tipping point," they can fall with shocking speed.
Having studied international relations and history in college, we have noted the tendency for events to take their own course once things reach a certain point.
The fall of the Berlin Wall is on many minds, particularly in Cairo and Damascus. There is a fear that the success of the Iraq's election and the growing strength of its indigenous military may prompt larger demonstrations of popular unrest.
But the revolution wouldn't stop there.
Across the Arabian peninsula, the shock waves are only now building.
Advance the time frame forward a year or so. Imagine the insurgency is all but destroyed, the Coalition largely withdrawn, and Iraq now has a victorious and confident military - the strongest outside of Israel in the Middle East.
Imagine this and then imagine a Shi'ite revolt in Saudi Arabia - a revolt in the name of democracy and an end to state-sponsored terrorism.
Would Iraq intervene? It need not do so overtly. Instead, it could send "volunteers" to help their co-religionists and ideological brothers - just as Saudi Arabia allowed its own radicals to blow up Iraqi school children "for the cause."
This is the nightmare that haunts the halls of Riyadh, an alternate reality that did not exist even in conception two years ago but is now an undeniable possibility.
Europe and the diplomatic Establishment cling to the mantra of "stablity," but it is long since gone.
If we may quote Ambassador Kosh: "The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote."